2026 World Cup: Mexico’s Odds After Its First Knockout Stage Win Since 1986

Building off its momentum of winning Group A, Mexico defeated Ecuador 2-0 in the Round of 32, marking its first knockout stage win since 1986. El Tri will play its Round of 16 game in Mexico City, on Sunday, July 5th on FOX. Mexico will await the winner of the England vs. DR Congo matchup. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Mexico’s only other World Cup knockout-stage win also came at Estadio Azteca in the 1986 Round of 16, a 2-0 win over Bulgaria. 40 years later, Mexico has done it again by the exact same score at the exact same historic stadium. With the win, Mexico remains unbeaten in World Cup group games at home, going a combined 8-2-0 (W-D-L), with two wins and a draw in 1970 and 1986, and now four wins in 2026. Even more impressively, Mexico has not lost a home game since an October 2018 friendly against Chile and has not lost a competitive home game since September 2013, a World Cup qualifier vs Honduras. Before the tournament began, Mexico was listed at +6500 to win the World Cup. Now, after winning its first four games of the tournament without giving up a goal, Mexico has surged up the oddsboard to +3000. After its best start to a World Cup in 40 years, can Mexico continue to make a deep run in this tournament? Let’s check out the updated odds for El Tri as of July 1. Team Mexico — Stage of EliminationLast 16: -210 (bet $10 to win $14.76 total)Quarterfinals: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)Semifinals: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)Runner-up: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)Outright winner: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total) Mexico’s Past World Cup Results 1930: Group stage1934: Did not qualify1938: Withdrew1950: Group stage1954: Group stage1958: Group stage1962: Group stage1966: Group stage1970: Quarterfinals1974: Did not qualify1978: Group stage1982: Did not qualify1986: Quarterfinals1990: Banned1994: Round of 161998: Round of 162002: Round of 162006: Round of 162010: Round of 162014: Round of 162018: Round of 162022: Group stage2026: TBDWhat to know: Mexico has made a habit of being in the running, but never really being in the running. Make sense? Consider this: El Tri made it out of the group stage in seven consecutive World Cups (1994-2018), but never made it past the Round of 16 in any of those years. In 2022, Mexico failed to make it out of the group stage. After dominating Group A this summer, Mexico has now advanced to the knockout stage in eight of the last nine World Cups. It is important to note, however, that Mexico has never made it past the quarterfinals at a FIFA men’s World Cup. Could this finally be the year? El Tri will get its chance to break its Round of 16 curse on Sunday.