2026 FIFA World Cup Bracket: Simulating the Tournament Based on Betting Favorites

What happens when you let the odds decide the World Cup? We simulated the entire bracket to find out. For the first time ever, 48 nations will compete across 12 groups of four spread throughout the United States, Canada and Mexico. From the opening match on June 11 to the World Cup Final on July 19 at New York New Jersey Stadium, the tournament will feature a record 104 matches packed with drama, chaos, heartbreak and many unforgettable moments. With so many matches and an expanded knockout stage, predicting how the bracket could unfold has become even more fascinating. Here is a full look at a projected World Cup bracket based entirely on betting favorites advancing through every round of the tournament. In other words, this is the “all chalk” bracket. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. How the Bracket Was Built To simulate the 2026 World Cup bracket, every pick was based entirely on betting markets. Using DraftKings odds, we advanced the favorite at every stage of the tournament. Group winners and runners-up were determined using odds to win each group along with odds to qualify from the group stage. The eight third-place teams that advanced were selected by comparing qualification odds across all 12 groups. Because the 48-team format includes predetermined knockout pairings for third-place qualifiers, FIFA’s official tournament regulations were used to place every advancing team into the correct Round of 32 matchup. From there, every knockout match was decided by which nation had shorter odds to win the World Cup outright. Projected Round of 32 Matchups: The knockout stage officially begins with the Round of 32, where every group winner and runner-up automatically advances. The favorite to win each group was placed into the No. 1 position from that group, while the team with the second-best odds to win the group was slotted into the No. 2 position for their respective group. To determine those final eight spots, we used the betting odds in the “to qualify from group” markets and selected the strongest remaining teams that were not projected to finish first or second in their groups. Here’s how the projected Round of 32 would look if every group favorite advanced based on current DraftKings odds. The left side of the bracket features several European powers, including France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, the right side is also loaded with contenders such as Brazil, England, Argentina and Portugal. Notably, both host nations, the USA and Mexico, advanced past the Round of 32 in this projection, setting up spots in the Round of 16 during a home World Cup. Projected Round of 16 Matchups: The “all chalk” bracket continues into the Round of 16, with the next round featuring some of the tournament’s most anticipated matchups. This round would be headlined by a massive showdown between Germany and France, pitting the 2014 World Cup champions against the 2018 World Cup champions. Meanwhile, Colombia, a nation many view as a potential dark horse in the tournament, would face Spain in one of the most intriguing matchups of the round. Unfortunately, this is where the road comes to an end for both the USA and Mexico, as the two host nations draw difficult Round of 16 matchups against Belgium and England. On the right side of the bracket, Argentina and Portugal both continue advancing, keeping alive the possibility of a blockbuster Lionel Messi vs. Cristiano Ronaldo showdown. Quarterfinals We’re now down to the final eight, with some incredible matchups taking place. The left side of the bracket would feature France vs. the Netherlands along with Spain vs. Belgium, creating two heavyweight European clashes with semifinal spots on the line. As is the case in this projection, if Argentina and Portugal both win their respective groups and then take care of business against favorable opponents in the first two knockout rounds, they would meet in a dream quarterfinal matchup between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. Given the structure of the bracket and the current betting odds, there is a very realistic path for this “matchup of a lifetime” to happen. England vs. Brazil would also headline the round in what would be another marquee matchup between two nations that have the third-best (+650) and fourth-best (+850) odds to win it all, respectively. Semifinals And then there were four. As this projection shows, if Spain and France both win their respective groups, they would land on the same side of the bracket. That is hugely significant considering they currently hold the two shortest odds to win the World Cup, with Spain at +475 and France at +500. Because of the way the bracket is structured, there is a very realistic chance the tournament’s two favorites could meet in the semifinals instead of the World Cup Final, similar to how Spain and France faced off in the semifinal at UEFA Euro 2024. On the other side, England and Argentina would square off in another massive matchup featuring two of the sport’s biggest global powers. World Cup Final If the bracket goes all chalk, we would get a rematch of the 2024 Euro Final between Spain and England. Spain won that match 2-1 after Mikel Oyarzabal scored the game-winning goal in the 86th minute. This matchup would also make history, becoming the first men’s FIFA World Cup Final that served as a rematch of the previous European Championship Final. The current odds for this exact finals matchup to happen is +1400, the shortest odds of any exact matchup.