2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, Predictions: Favorites, Picks

The 152nd running of the “Run for the Roses” takes place this Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown and is famously known as the “most exciting two minutes in sports,” as well as the oldest continuously held sporting event in the United States. After the draw set the official post positions, here are the updated live odds for the 2026 Kentucky Derby as of May 2. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Kentucky Derby live odds: Renegade: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total) So Happy: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total) Commandment: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total) Further Ado: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)Chief Wallabee: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total) Emerging Market: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total) Danon Bourbon: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)Potente: +2100 (bet $10 to win $220 total) Wonder Dean: +2100 (bet $10 to win $220 total) Great White: +2300 (bet $10 to win $240 total) Incredibolt: +2400 (bet $10 to win $250 total) Golden Tempo: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total) Litmus Test: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)Six Speed: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)Albus: +4300 (bet $10 to win $440 total)Intrepido: +4400 (bet $10 to win $450 total)Pavlovian: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)Robusta: +8400 (bet $10 to win $850 total)Ocelli:+8700 (bet $10 to win $880 total) For bettors eyeing the favorite, Renegade is the horse currently at the top of the board. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., Renegade boasts one of the strongest trainer-jockey pairings in the field, along with prominent co-owner Mike Repole. Pletcher, one of the most accomplished trainers in American horse racing history with more than 5,500 career wins, has won the Kentucky Derby twice. Ortiz, meanwhile, remains in search of his first Derby victory despite being widely regarded as one of the sport’s top jockeys. It’s worth noting that no favorite has won the Kentucky Derby since 2018. Renegade will also break from the No. 1 post position, a spot that has historically been challenging. The last horse to win from the rail was Ferdinand in 1986. Second on the oddsboard is Further Ado at +700. Further Ado is coming off a major win in the Grade 1 Kentucky Blue Grass Stakes. He is trained by Brad Cox and ridden by legendary jockey John Velazquez. Cox, one of the sport’s top trainers, has one official Kentucky Derby win, though his lone victory came via disqualification and not by crossing the line first. Velazquez, meanwhile, is a three-time Derby winner. Further Ado should get an ideal trip from post 18, likely sitting just behind the early leaders, conserving energy before making his big move at the top of the stretch. It is important to note that Irad Oritz Jr., who previously rode Further Ado in his previous four races, has chosen to ride Renegade over him. A few longer shots that might be worth considering are Chief Wallabee (+800) and Potente (+2200). Chief Wallabee shares the same trainer-jockey pairing as last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty, with Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado. They’ll look to become the first trainer-jockey duo to win back-to-back Derbies since Ron Turcotte and Lucien Laurin, who accomplished the feat with Riva Ridge in 1972 and Secretariat in 1973. Despite barely losing his last two races, Chief Wallabee has posted some of the fastest speed figures in the entire field in those races. Lastly, Potente offers strong value, as Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert looks to make history with a potential seventh Kentucky Derby win in 2026. Originally purchased for $2.4 million, Potente has early speed and should be forwardly placed in this race. He finished second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and has reportedly impressed in his first trip to Churchill Downs, “setting the track ablaze” with a sharp morning workout that suggests he’s rounding into great form before the biggest race of his life. As history has shown, it’s never wise to doubt Baffert.