Sound Smart: 4 Observations on the First Wave of NFL Free Agency

Let the second week of free agency begin. After the first week, the quarterback carousel looks relatively settled. Kyler Murrray signed with the Vikings, Malik Willis signed with the Dolphins, Daniel Jones signed an extension with the Colts, Tua Tagovailoa signed with the Falcons. Aaron Rodgers has not signed, but he figures to return to the Steelers at some point before training camp. Elsewhere, receiver Alec Pierce got a massive deal to return to the Colts and former Eagles edge Jaelan Phillips got a massive deal from the Carolina Panthers. It has already been a busy and expensive free agency window — a record $5.83 billion was committed to player contracts in the first week. But that’s what we saw at surface level. This is “Sound Smart,” where I try to spin forward, dive deeper and think outside the box. If I do my job, you’ll have a better understanding of what just happened in NFL free agency. 1. IF THERE’S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW The Ravens were winners by backing out of the Maxx Crosby trade. Baltimore did something that’s every NFL general manager’s nightmare: cancel a massive deal that included huge draft capital. By backing out, the Ravens stamped five-time Pro Bowl edge Crosby with a “damaged goods” label. And they did it at a time when most of the elite free-agent pass-rushers had already landed with teams that desperately needed help at the position. In other words, the Ravens deflated Crosby’s value in just about every way. The Raiders got wholly and totally screwed. If you check out what The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported about how the Ravens had their team doctor and four or five independent doctors check Crosby’s medicals, it’s apparent that Baltimore was at least thorough before canceling the deal. If all was really hunky-dory with Crosby’s knee, wouldn’t several other teams show a real interest in him — particularly given that the cost would surely be lower than the two first-round picks the Ravens were giving up? That shouldn’t completely excuse Baltimore’s shadiness. What the Ravens did was absolutely sketchy. And we can all speculate about whether they got buyer’s remorse. But the truth is that they were within league rules to reverse this trade. They were within league rules to set up a free-agent deal with Pro Bowl edge Trey Hendrickson. They definitely violated some unwritten rules — but none that will permanently damage GM Eric DeCosta’s reputation. As he said last week: “It hasn’t stopped my phone from ringing.” And so, by trusting their doctors and observing the shifting landscape of pass-rushers, the Ravens made the controversial decision to back out of a trade — knowing full-well that they’d be the brunt of criticism and every internet meme known to man. And then they did that most antagonistic thing imaginable: signing Hendrickson — practically right after Crosby’s plane took off from Baltimore. All that is true. But what’s also true is that they landed on the most sensible outcome. Crosby is a better run defender and Hendrickson is a better pass-rusher. So they’re not a one-for-one swap. But to get Hendrickson for roughly the same dollar amount as Crosby — and not have to pay two first-round picks? That’s a coup. I hate to admit it, because it sure feels like the Ravens did the Raiders dirty, but Baltimore wound up with a better situation. The upgrade from Hendrickson to Crosby wasn’t worth what Baltimore had to give up to get there. And since I’m spouting unpopular opinions, I’ll say this, too: There’s also a scenario where the Raiders are winners, too. They had the cap space to take Crosby back without altering any of their quarter-billion dollars in free-agent deals. Behind a record-breaking (and laudable) deal for center Tyler Linderbaum, the Raiders’ free-agent class is impressive and could immediately help them begin to change their identity under new head coach Klint Kubiak. And it’s possible Crosby has had a change of heart about wanting to leave Vegas — whether by seeing how cold the business is elsewhere or by seeing the way the Raiders have invested in this team. And don’t forget: Las Vegas has the first pick in the draft, which is expected to be Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza. Maybe Crosby stays. Maybe he helps Las Vegas become relevant in 2026. Maybe this trade really wasn’t meant to be. 2. PEELING BACK THE CURTAIN Of all the quarterbacks available, why did Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings pick Kyler Murray? Given all the options in free agency, I thought O’Connell and Minnesota interim GM Rob Brzezinski might have interest in just about every other quarterback before Murray. And that’s because there were obvious ties between the Vikings and Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers. Even Tua Tagovailoa made sense for the Vikings, given he’s a sound decision-maker and a solid system quarterback. (His veteran-minimum contract doesn’t hurt either.) All those quarterbacks fall into the “system QB” and/or “pocket passer” categories, even Rodgers at this point in his career. Murray is unlike the others. He has shown the ability to operate in the pocket, but given his size (6-foot) and athleticism, he is just as dangerous — and often more dangerous — outside of the pocket (and outside of the system). With Murray comes a handful of questions, including about his work ethic. He had a clause in his contract extension (worth $230.5 million) that required him to spend four hours per week on game prep without distractions like video games, TV or internet browsing. This was four years ago. A lot has changed since then, but his play on the field has not — at least not substantially. After seven NFL seasons, the 28-year-old Murray still has too many moments of immaturity and thrill-seeking throughout games. It made for a streaky Cardinals offense, a unit that changed drastically under journeyman Jacoby Brissett’s steady (and admittedly boring) hand in the second half of last season. This offseason, the Cardinals seemed happy to see Murray go. Now, this scenario is supposed to be O’Connell’s specialty. He takes veteran quarterbacks who have underachieved — or were underappreciated — elsewhere and turns them into something special. So if anyone is going to help Murray, it’s O’Connell. Murray is the real winner here, working with a coach who should be as capable as anyone to maximize the QB’s potential — even if O’Connell’s track record is with a different style of QB. But we saw some fallibility as O’Connell worked with J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota’s first-round pick in 2024 who had a rough debut season in 2025. So Murray will be a fascinating test for O’Connell. And because of the Vikings’ financial commitment to Murray — he’s getting the veteran minimum from Minnesota while the Cardinals pay him more than $35 million — this probably won’t go wrong in any catastrophic way. But if their partnership does fail, then I could see O’Connell ending up on the hot seat by the end of the 2026 season. Even so, it’s a risk worth taking. Given Murray’s upside, this could be one of the most exciting QB-coach tandems in the league. 3. THE GREAT, THE GOOD, THE BAD & THE UGLY Great: The Seahawks let four key players go in free agency. It’s wise for Seattle to let other teams pay the Super Bowl tax. It will no doubt hurt to see the following players go: RB Kenneth Walker III, edge Boye Mafe, safety Coby Bryant and CB Tariq Woolen. Walker, who signed a three-year contract with the Chiefs, will be the toughest to replace, but the Seahawks can draft a running back and hunt for a value option in free agency (Brian Robinson, Kene Nwangu or Dameon Pierce). And then it’ll be on Mike Macdonald, considered the best defensive coach in football, to work with GM John Schneider to find ways to replace the defensive departures. It’s also not like the Seahawks let every free agent go. They let key players such as cornerback Josh Jobe and receiver Rashid Shaheed test the open market and then re-signed them to modest contracts. That’s good business. They can’t get caught chasing last year’s success. They have to build something new for 2026. Good: The Chiefs sign RB Kenneth Walker III for $43 million over three years. If there was one thing that held the Chiefs back the past couple of seasons, it was their inability to run the ball. It was, by far, their most profound and fundamental issue. They’ve tried to draft to fix the issue. They’ve tried to bring in old and new veterans to fix the issue. Nothing has worked. But Walker seems like the perfect solution to their lack of explosiveness on the ground. He had 10 runs of 20 yards or more last season — collectively, the Chiefs’ running backs had just one. He is, admittedly, a very expensive solution. But by spending big to get an elite RB, the Chiefs won’t have to chase Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love, the consensus top running back prospect in the draft. They will be free to draft whomever they want at No. 9 overall, be it Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate or safety Caleb Downs. Bad: The Panthers sign edge Jaelan Phillips for $120 million over four years. It was a tough call between Phillips and Odafe Oweh, the former Ravens and Chargers edge who signed a four-year, $100 million contract with the Commanders, for this category. The nature of buying a premium position in free agency is that you’re going to overpay dramatically. Every offseason, free-agent quarterbacks, receivers and edge rushers get record-setting sums, even if they are not even close to being the best players at their position. (Teams extend or tag the best players before they can hit the open market. Look at All-Pro receiver George Pickens, who was franchise-tagged by the Cowboys.) Phillips is a pressure specialist, not typically getting home for gaudy sack statistics — he’s never logged double-digit sacks — but creating enough havoc to have league-wide respect. He’s a good player, but he’s also often injured, with both ACL and Achilles tears in the past three years. He nearly retired in college due to injuries. I could see a scenario where the Panthers regret their decision to pay him the eighth-most per year among edge rushers. Ugly: The Bills trade a second-round pick for receiver DJ Moore. You could squint and justify the Bills sending a second-round pick to the Bears in exchange for Moore. But it was an overpay. We can plainly see that, given what the Steelers sent in exchange for Colts receiver Michael Pittman: a swap of sixth- and seventh-round picks. But given new Buffalo head coach Joe Brady has a history with Moore in Carolina and given how badly the Bills needed help at receiver, it made sense that they went out and got their guy. The deal got ugly, however, when it came out that the Bills weren’t just putting themselves on the hook for Moore’s $24.5 million guarantee in 2026 and $15.5 million guarantee in 2027 (as a part of a total salary of $24.5 million). They decided to also guarantee $15.5 million in 2028 (again, as a part of a salary of $24.5 million). That’s a long-term commitment to a guy who will be 31 in 2027. And suddenly, the deal became a financial and draft-asset overpay. The Bills have taken on a severe risk to get Moore, who has one 1,000-yard season in the past four years despite playing 17 games each year. Buffalo is betting big on getting more from Moore. 4. WHAT WE STILL DON’T KNOW Where and when is Aaron Rodgers going to sign, if he signs at all? It seems obvious that he’ll return to the Steelers, and he’ll probably make everyone — including the folks in Pittsburgh — wait until August. But also … expect the unexpected with Rodgers. Which second-week free agents are going to complete a Super Bowl roster? It’s absolutely possible to build a juggernaut in free agency, particularly by shelling out massive sums of money to rebuild a downtrodden roster. But more often, we’ve seen teams identify key players — and for great value — during this phase of free agency. That’s how a good team becomes great. Here are a few players I think might qualify: tight end David Njoku, tackle Jonah Williams, guard Joel Bitonio, linebackers Bobby Wagner and Matt Milano, and edges Calais Campbell and Cam Jordan. What are the Cardinals going to do at quarterback? They have Jacoby Brissett, and they could draft one of the second-tier rookies, like Alabama’s Ty Simpson. Jimmy Garoppolo is also available, and he worked with new Arizona head coach Mike LaFleur in Los Angeles. There’s even the option of trading for Mac Jones, though I think that would be ill-advised, given the 49ers have reportedly set an astronomical asking price. Maybe the Cardinals’ plan is to sit and wait for the 2027 NFL Draft — and Arch Manning. How high will Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love go in the draft? The Chiefs (ninth overall) signed Kenneth Walker and the Saints (No. 8) signed Travis Etienne. Even the Commanders added Rachaad White. Might this mean they all expect the Titans to draft Love at No. 4? Several executives view Love as the draft’s best prospect. It’s a question of value (and opportunity cost) — and how high a team can justify taking a running back. How much will George Pickens make? He would have been the No. 1 free agent on the market if the Cowboys hadn’t tagged him. Dallas has a history of contract tomfoolery. So far, Pickens has yet to agree to an extension. What is Jerry Jones up to now? Where will Crosby play in 2026? Not long after the Ravens reversed the trade, an NFL executive texted me that Crosby would inevitably get “traded elsewhere.” But perhaps not in a hurry. If Crosby still wants to leave (and the Raiders still want to trade him), we might not know where he’s playing until training camp.