Conference Tournament Betting Report: Bettors Shying Away From Favorites

Betting on March Madness odds is more often associated with the NCAA Tournament. But the madness actually starts this week, via all the conference tournaments. That’s something sharp bettors certainly recognize, and the public betting masses are starting to catch on, as well. In particular, conference tournament futures odds — betting on which team wins the title — are drawing action. “It’s predominantly the sharp crowd, taking teams that are contrarian plays,” Caesars Sports’ head of college basketball trading Rich Zanco said Tuesday. “The Big East is garnering a lot of action, and I would say the SEC is, as well.” Zanco provides his behind-the-counter analysis on conference tournament futures odds and action. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. College Hoops Rocks on FOX The Big East Tournament airs primarily on FOX and FS1, starting with two quarterfinal matchups Thursday night on FS1, and culminating with Saturday’s 6:30 p.m. ET title game on FOX. St. John’s is 25-6 and the No. 1 seed, after winning the regular-season title for the second straight year. But the Red Storm aren’t favored in Big East Tournament odds, nor are bettors particularly enamored with Rick Pitino’s squad. “There’s really not much interest on St. John’s,” Zanco said. “Over the past couple months, we’ve taken some big bets on St. John’s to win the national title. But they’re not as interested in St. John’s to win the Big East.” UConn is the No. 2 seed, but the -125 favorite in Big East futures odds. St. John’s follows at +205, then Villanova at +800. No other team is shorter than +5000. “Bettors are gravitating toward UConn, and they’re taking shots on the longer shots — Butler, Georgetown and Xavier,” Zanco said. Those three teams are all at the bottom of the Big East. Zanco said Butler took a little action at +20000 (200/1) and is now +12500 (125/1). Georgetown and Xavier are at +10000 (100/1) and +20000 (200/1), respectively. Zanco said the third choice to win the Big East is his preference. “I actually think Villanova is an under-the-radar team,” he said. Is Vandy Dandy? In SEC Tournament futures odds, Florida (25-6) is the clear favorite. The Gators are riding an 11-game win streak that has also put them among the favorites in NCAA Tournament odds. Caesars has No. 1 seed Florida at -160 to cut down the SEC nets on Sunday afternoon. Then the odds slide out to +575 for Arkansas, followed by Alabama at +700, Vanderbilt at +900 and Tennessee at +1500. Bettors aren’t too keen on Florida’s price, which requires a $160 bet to win $100 (total payout $260). Zanco said Caesars customers are looking elsewhere for some value. “It’s predominantly sharper bets that are coming in. And they’re fading Florida at the top end,” he said. “They’re taking Vanderbilt, and they took Alabama.” At +900, a $100 bet on Vandy would profit $900. The Commodores won three of their last four games to earn the No. 4 seed, giving them a bye until Friday’s quarterfinals, along with Florida, No. 2 seed Alabama and No. 3 Arkansas. The Crimson Tide went 9-1 in their last 10 regular-season games, so perhaps they’re peaking at the proper time. At +700, a $100 wager would profit $700 if ‘Bama wins the SEC crown. Too High a Price to Pay Duke is not only the favorite in Caesars’ ACC Tournament odds, but is atop NCAA Tournament championship odds, as well. The Blue Devils (29-2) are on an eight-game win streak and resume play in Thursday’s ACC quarterfinals. Among the major conferences — ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, Big East — Duke is the largest favorite in conference tournament odds. The Blue Devils are in the -300 range to win the ACC, meaning it takes a $300 bet to win $100 (total payout $400). To say that’s unattractive to most bettors is an understatement. “No one has any interest in laying the number with Duke,” Zanco said. “We’ve seen some interest in North Carolina State at 60/1. The betting public is gravitating toward that team, and Clemson as well. Bettors are apparently banking on N.C. State — the No. 7 seed — regaining its form, after finishing the regular season on a 1-6 slide. If that somehow happens, though, at +6000, a $100 bet would profit a tidy $6,000. There is a recent precedent with the Wolfpack. In 2024, N.C. State was the No. 10 seed in the ACC Tourney and won five games in five days to nab the title. This time around, with a bye into the second round, the Wolfpack need to win four games in four days, starting Wednesday. No. 5 seed Clemson would have to do likewise. Bettors think there’s some value at Tigers +4000 to win the ACC, meaning a $100 bet would profit $4,000. Illinois Noise Big Ten Tournament futures odds are bunched more closely than the SEC and ACC. No. 1 seed Michigan (29-2) is a relatively modest +105 favorite at Caesars, followed by a quartet of teams at +1100 or shorter: Illinois at +400, Michigan State at +650, Purdue at +800, and Nebraska at +1100 “There’s no interest in laying Michigan,” Zanco said. “Some of the sharper crowd is coming in on Purdue and Illinois. Sharps have been on Illinois all year.” Zanco also noted one dark horse in Big Ten odds. “There’s some interest in UCLA,” he said of action on the +3500 No. 6 seed. The Bruins won four of their last five, including a 72-52 home rout of No. 2 seed Nebraska last week. If you think UCLA has the goods to win the Big Ten, then a $100 bet would profit a healthy $3,500. Tempting TCU Arizona spent time this season as the favorite to win the national title. So it’s no surprise that the Wildcats (29-2) are the No. 1 seed and the favorite in Big 12 Tournament futures odds. Arizona is hovering around even money at Caesars, meaning you get what you bet: A $100 wager stands to profit $100 ($200 total payout) if the Wildcats win the Big 12. No. 2 seed Houston is the +200 second choice, then No. 5 seed Iowa State checks in at +700. No. 3 seed Kansas is the +800 fourth choice. “The public is on Arizona,” Zanco said. “Surprisingly, there’s not much interest at all in Houston. The Cougars have looked susceptible over the past few weeks.” Houston, which lost to Florida in last season’s national final, dropped three straight games from Feb. 16–23. But it’s worth noting those setbacks were against three strong teams: Road losses vs. Iowa State and Kansas, sandwiched around a home loss to Arizona. Zanco also noted some long-shot play on the No. 6 seed. “The sharper crowd is definitely on TCU. They took 90/1 and 80/1,” he said. “And wiseguys tend to gravitate toward Iowa State, too.” TCU is certainly interesting, having won five in a row and eight of its last nine. The Horned Frogs might not merit a $100 wager. But a $10 flier at +8000 would return $800 profit, if the Horned Frogs make a run to the Big 12 title. Just something to consider.