NFL QB Tiers: Ranking Each Team’s Current Starter By Trade Value

The beauty of the Matthew Stafford (and Jared Goff) trade was that it re-framed what we thought was possible in the NFL. Before that, it felt laughable to discuss a trade involving a QB of Stafford’s magnitude. But since Stafford, we’ve seen trades involving Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Even last year’s Geno Smith trade to the Las Vegas Raiders came as a surprise. There’s a whole new dynamic around the NFL’s hot stove season. We can wonder: What if? So let’s do just that. Let’s imagine how each NFL team would respond if we approached them to trade for their starting QB. And it’s not just a fun exercise. It’s a way to measure a QB’s true value, assessing a combination of each QB’s talent, contract, age, accomplishments and style of play. Here is our trade value chart for every team’s starting QB. DAY 3 VALUE These teams have nothing of real value to trade at QB: T-31. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa No one is calling for Tua and his $39 million base salary, which is why he’ll reportedly be released. T-31. New York Jets: Justin Fields No one would trade for Fields and his $20 million contract in 2026. 30. Pittsburgh Steelers: Will Howard Aaron Rodgers is a free agent, and the Steelers have been talking up how much they like Howard, which is great. But he was a sixth-rounder for a reason. He has no trade value after not playing as a rookie. 29. Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders Given his contract value and notoriety, someone might offer a seventh-rounder for Shedeur. Why not? 28. Arizona Cardinals: Jacoby Brissett With Kyler Murray set to be released, Brissett is the Cardinals’ QB1 — for now. He showed he can operate an offense last year — and his contract would be team-friendly. Brissett may not have first-round value. But he’s also probably worth a fifth. 27. Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy If a guy goes in Round 1, it’s usually because he has fans around the league — not just in the spot where he landed. As bad as he’s been, maybe someone would throw the Vikings a sixth for McCarthy. 26. Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Penix’s status isn’t much different than McCarthy’s. At one point, many teams liked him. Does anyone still? 25. Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones Now that he’s set to make $37.5 million on the transition tag (while recovering from an Achilles tear and a broken leg), he’s probably worth a fourth, akin to Geno Smith netting a third last year. FIRST-ROUND VALUE If a team offered a mid-first-round pick … 24. New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough Shough, the 40th overall pick in 2025, exceeded expectations. His throwing motion is as smooth as evaluators thought — and his talents translated as immediately as the Saints hoped. For a guy like Shough (whose upside might be limited), it’ll be about how quickly New Orleans can build a team around him. He didn’t show he was a world-beater, by any means. But given that he’s probably a better option than 2026 draft prospect Ty Simpson, the Saints would need a first-rounder in the top half of the first round. 23. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young Young and the Panthers are approaching extension territory, so this year will make or break his relationship with Carolina. But for the time being, he’s a starting-caliber QB who is still ascending on a rookie deal — and he now has playoff experience. That’s all valuable. THE BLOCKBUSTER If a team put two first-round picks and change on the table, these QBs would be available. 22. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud Quarterback performances really don’t get much worse than how Stroud played against the Patriots in the playoffs. But he has had his moments as the Texans’ face of the franchise — and those impressive moments extend beyond that fabled rookie season when Stroud looked like a future superstar. He’s entering a turbulent area in his development (only amplified by his impending contract extension) that will make or break him. There’s no saying what the future holds for Stroud’s career, but the Texans aren’t parting ways with him without major compensation. He’s young, and there’s just enough there. 21. New York Giants: Jaxson Dart It’s easy to imagine Joe Schoen still likes Dart after the efficient rookie year that the QB enjoyed — and without a supporting cast. Heck, it’s easy to imagine John Harbaugh was impressed, too. The uncertainty surrounding Dart was whether he could acclimate to a pro-style system after spending time in a wild-card system under Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. There was no harder system to project into the pros than the Rebels, according to scouts last year. Well, Dart alleviated those doubts, exceeding expectations and playing well despite a shoddy supporting cast. By answering the pre-draft questions, he essentially doubled his value in just one year. The bigger question moving forward is how he’ll hold up physically. In his rookie season, Dart’s aggressive style of play — particularly as a runner — led to one concussion and five different concussion checks in the first 10 games (including preseason). You have to hope a secure, strong coach can reach Dart to take less contact. 20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield It was a tough year for Mayfield, whose supporting cast has steadily declined since his league-wrecking year in 2024. His supporting cast might only get worse, given that Mike Evans is a free agent and Chris Godwin’s injuries seem to have taken a toll on his playmaking ability. But if plopped into another good situation, Mayfield could be that same system optimizer that he was for the Bucs. 19. Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford Stafford once netted two first-rounders and Jared Goff. But that was when he was 33 years old and discontent in Detroit — and the team had almost no leverage. In this case, it’s the opposite, with the Rams wanting to win now with Stafford. They want a Super Bowl — not future compensation. Even at 38 years old, it would take more than what’s reasonable to pry the league’s reigning MVP away from Sean McVay. THE MEGA-BLOCKBLUSTER If a team put two first-round picks and two Day 2 picks on the table, these QBs would be available. 18. Detroit Lions: Jared Goff It’s a testament to Goff, now an established top-tier pocket passer, that he is currently worth two first-rounders when — previously — he was a piece of a greater package that included two first-rounders. He has proven himself as a guy who is going to make the most of your system. It’s just that you have to have a good system (and probably some good skill players, and definitely a good offensive line) to make the most of Goff. 17. Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts Tired: What if the Eagles traded A.J. Brown?! Wired: What if the Eagles traded Jalen Hurts!? I like Hurts. I think where he fails in the box score, he succeeds in the win column. And that’s a fairly controversial sentiment, given that pretty much everyone agrees that wins are not a QB stat. But in the case of Hurts, I think it really applies. When you watch closely, he has a major role in the Eagles getting the lead and holding onto it. He sacrifices production in order to get wins. And I’m not just making stuff up here — the results are there. He won a Super Bowl. He’s appeared in two. He’s at his best in a low-volume, high-efficiency passing attack. He’s very, very good when surrounded by a strong supporting cast. That’s why I could see a team coming after him on the trade market. And I could also see the Eagles parting ways with him for the right price. 16. Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold Speaking of system optimizers, Darnold was really good for Minnesota in 2024 and Seattle this past season — obviously playing a pivotal role during the latter’s playoff run, most notably outdueling Matthew Stafford in the NFC Championship Game. There were some low points in Darnold’s season, but that game ultimately rearranged what we thought we knew about him. A Super Bowl ring doesn’t hurt, either. Darnold is still getting better. And his contract is actually a reasonable deal, with the Seahawks taking on $37.9 million against the cap in 2026 (nearly identical to what the Colts are paying Jones). In the case of Darnold, the Seahawks want him. And so nobody is coming to offer what they’d want for him: two firsts and then some. 15. Las Vegas Raiders: (Presumptive 2026 No. 1 draft pick) Fernando Mendoza Mendoza might end up being the most polarizing first overall pick in recent memory. His pro comparisons are Matt Ryan and Jared Goff. Mendoza is smart and dedicated. He’s going to mature into exactly the kind of person and leader you want at the front of your franchise and offense. He has enough arm strength and athleticism. Just enough. He’s not the most enticing, high-upside prospect. But if the Jets were trying to move from No. 2 overall to the No. 1 spot — the difference in value would probably cost them the second overall pick and then two more first-rounders (as a part of a larger package). 14. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward Ward demonstrated in his first year that he absolutely belongs in the NFL — and was deserving of the No. 1 overall pick. But now, the hard work really begins. He needs to shape his talents to fit into the structures of an NFL offense. He needs to cut out the bad decisions and stay disciplined. He needs to start winning football games. And he can’t do it all himself. It would help if the Titans invested in his supporting cast, too. Given everything that Ward put on film — with plenty of jaw-dropping throws — I think teams would be lining up to develop him. That’s why coach Robert Saleh raced to Tennessee for this job. It must have been about Ward, whose impressive play was reminiscent of Caleb Williams and Drake Maye from their rookie years. 13. Denver Broncos: Bo Nix The Broncos love Nix. And I suppose their struggles in the AFC Championship Game — even before the blizzard arrived — are a testament to Nix’s value and future. The thing that impressed me most about Nix in 2025 was his ability to execute a diverse set of game plans. The Broncos seemed to beat teams in different ways in different weeks. Nix’s flexibility made life easier for coach Sean Payton to flex his playbook on opponents. Nix will always have his detractors, in part because most people didn’t expect him to go where he went in the draft (12th overall). But he’s developing into a really competent passer. He’s both smarter and more athletic than people give him credit for. And he’s still on his rookie deal. THE GODFATHER OFFER If a team put at least three first-round picks on the table, this guy might be available. 12. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence *Chris Collinsworth voice* Now here’s a guy I didn’t expect to place in this tier. Not if you asked me at this time last year. For years, Lawrence seemed to be going through a series of existential crises, failing each time to land on who he was — and who he should be — as a football player. It felt like he was defined by the missed throws, the turnovers and, yes, the drops. But I think coach Liam Coen has gotten Lawrence into a system and a series of routines to get the most out of this uniquely talented passer. I doubt he’ll ever enter the conversation as the best QB in the NFL, but he is one of the most talented QBs in the NFL. And Coen has finally harnessed that talent in ways we’ve not seen before. 11. San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy Because Mac Jones showed us what we’ve suspected all along — that Kyle Shanahan’s offense can make just about anyone look good — Purdy isn’t quite in the tier below. But make no mistake, he was tremendous in the second half of the season, both as a system operator and as a creative playmaker. His escapability and do-whatever-it-took mentality made him a threat in ways that we really hadn’t seen from him. He was throwing from unusual arm angles. He made big plays outside the pocket. Those surprise plays served as a reminder that Purdy is still developing, which is a big deal because he’s going to have to grow to keep the Niners in contention and justify his ballooning salary. 10. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels The injury situation is troubling. There’s no doubt about that. For all the hype about his rookie season, we’re starting to get flashes of Robert Griffin III and/or C.J. Stroud. And yet, his rookie film and his LSU production still make him one of the most compelling young QBs in the league. He might be frail in frame, but his pocket prowess and mobility are a rare combination. The Commanders — and likely several other teams — still see a guy who could be the next Lamar Jackson. 9. Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott Prescott is sort of Joe Burrow-lite. Prescott has all the same qualities as Burrow when it comes to pocket poise and mental acuity for the game. Prescott also has an impressive set of weapons (and, often, as unimpressive a defense) as Burrow. And it’s extremely likely that Prescott will continue to get better if he can stay healthy and plays into his late 30s. But there are complications. He is already 32, and he has never made it out of the divisional round of the playoffs. After 10 seasons in the league, you’d like to see Prescott win more playoff games — even giving him the handicap of the Cowboys craziness. He’s also the highest-paid QB in the NFL. 8. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams There’s no doubt that he’s an absurd talent. There’s little doubt that he’s about to enjoy a meteoric rise. And it seems that Williams and Ben Johnson are both finding ways to compromise — and get the most out of each other. But for all his success this year, Williams only completed 58.1% of his passes in 2025. That’s the one metric that he will have to address to make himself untouchable at his time next year. Last year, he was probably the NFL’s most electric playmaker. But often, he doesn’t have to make life so difficult. 7. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert As bad as his numbers were, this was the year when Herbert proved he could handle just about any situation and play the position well. His offensive line was a disaster. His offensive scheme didn’t seem to be making the most of a deep group of pass-catchers. His running backs couldn’t find any room to run. By the end of the year, he had no support whatsoever. In 2025, the only good thing going for Herbert was that his defense did him the favor of helping him control the game — with mostly low-scoring affairs. In 2021, we saw Herbert shine, with impressive stats (5,014 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns). It feels like we’re a long way away from the Chargers’ passing offense being that prolific again. But we also now know that he’s not the type of QB whose fundamentals fall apart in a terrible situation. He will be better next year. Without regression. He is almost as valuable as QBs get. UNTOUCHABLE These guys wouldn’t move. Barring the QB demanding a trade, the value is essentially beyond what teams can offer by NFL rules (which only allow teams to trade three first-round picks). 6. Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love Love was one of the most efficient passers last year, with some of the most electrifying throws in football. In terms of unbelievable and creative playmaking, Love did so many of the things that we often praise Mahomes for: improvisation, pinpoint accuracy, off-platform throwing, unique arm strength. Love’s wow-factor was legitimately a 10 of 10. But that’s not why I suddenly have a newfound affection for Love’s style of play. The biggest reason is his interception percentage, down to 1.4% in 2025 from 2.6% in 2024. That’s a massive difference for a QB who’s taking (and converting) as many risky plays as Love is. And Love is doing it without an elite receiver at his disposal. This dude is still underrated. 5. Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson When you fire a coach like John Harbaugh — who immediately became the most sought-after candidate on the open market — you must be committed to your QB. Because Jackson wasn’t particularly good in 2025. It’s hard to know if he was dealing with acute issues — or whether he’s on the verge of a more significant decline. None of that matters. The Ravens are definitely all-in on him. And for good reason! He scored 45 touchdowns for Baltimore in 2024. When he’s healthy, he’s among the league’s most dangerous threats at the position. 4. New England Patriots: Drake Maye The playoff run was not his finest football. The Super Bowl might have actually been the worst he’d played since early in his rookie year. But his body of work — over the course of 2025 — elevated him into this tier. The Patriots wouldn’t trade their 23-year-old starter under almost any circumstances. They love him. He’s an ideal fit for the offense and the organization. It’s obviously dangerous to get overboard in praising a second-year QB, because look at what happened to Carson Wentz after his incredible second year. But for the time being, Maye demonstrated he has everything (and more) that a franchise needs to win a Super Bowl. They just need to figure out how to get him back there. 3. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow The thing about a QB like Burrow is that he should only get better with age. There’s a world where Burrow can continue to develop like Rodgers and Stafford have, increasing their understanding of the game to the point where it’s just about impossible to beat them mentally. Burrow will have more dependence upon his offensive line and his receivers than Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. But we’ve also now seen pocket passers last into their 40s — and remain among the league’s best. The Bengals are holding Burrow back. But I see a world where he has 10 more years of dominant play. It’s hard to make that case for Allen or Jackson. 2. Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen It’s strange to think that he is getting more impressive — even as his statistics get worse and his playoff results stay roughly the same. The Bills have struggled to put together good teams in recent years. But Allen has found a way to keep his team in contention. That’s more than you could ask of a QB. And it’s why he’s a perennial MVP candidate. The only question regarding Allen, set to enter his age-30 season, is how long can he keep this up? Allen is a wild man as a runner and it’s electrifying. But just because he’s a big dude, it doesn’t mean those hits don’t add up. Cam Newton is the clearest example of that, with his athleticism and overall play steeply declining — seemingly because of how much contact he took. But that’s a worry for another time. For now, he’s playing QB at a higher level than anyone in the NFL, even… 1. Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes After an unpredictable 2025 season for many of the best QBs in the NFL, it’s murky to try to make sense of who is the best right now. But there’s no doubt about who is the greatest QB of this generation. No amount of recency bias should stop every organization from picking Mahomes as the face of their franchise, if given all the options. He has a track record of overwhelming statistical success, which he seemed to willingly compromise to begin his track record of overwhelming Super Bowl success. The ACL injury is likely to make for a tough 2026 season. But assessing the broader view of his development, I trust that Mahomes is actually still ascending — and that he will hit another run of sustained dominance.