Joel Klatt’s Top 5 Games That Will Determine the Big Ten in 2026

The Big Ten’s schedule for the 2026 season is now set. While we don’t know how the season will play out yet, FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt knows which conference games will be the ones to watch for in 2026. Klatt shared which five games will determine the race for the Big Ten title next season in the latest episode of “The Joel Klatt Show,” as well as his winners and losers of the conference schedule draw. Now, Klatt’s list isn’t necessarily the five best or biggest games. Rather, it’s a list of five games that will have the most sway in the Big Ten title race. So, let’s take a closer look at Klatt’s five games that determine how the Big Ten goes in 2026. 5. Penn State at Michigan (Oct. 17) At first blush, the PSU-UM tilt might not seem major to many. However, Klatt thinks this game could tell us not just how serious a contender the Nittany Lions might be this season, but if they might run the table in the regular season. “The toughest game that Penn State has on their schedule is at Michigan,” Klatt said. “Here’s Penn State over in the distance, they could be undefeated by this point. … They would certainly be, at a minimum, in the top 12 in the country. They’ll have a lot of momentum. “It could put Penn State on a path, if they were to beat USC and Michigan, where we’re thinking, ‘Not only is this a playoff team, but is this team going to go to the Big Ten Championship Game and maybe win it?’” Klatt had Penn State as his biggest winner from the Big Ten’s schedule release, while he had Michigan as his second-biggest loser from the unveiling of the conference slate. If Michigan loses this game, it has road matchups at Oregon and Ohio State looming. This game might serve as a bit of a must-win for the Wolverines. 4. Oregon at USC (Sept. 26) Klatt believes the Oregon-USC game in September will be important for a simple reason: the winner will have an advantage over the other West Coast teams in the Big Ten. “You’re going to get a matchup that basically crowns one side of the conference,” Klatt said. “I know we don’t have divisions, but I’m talking about the West Coast. These teams all play each other out West, and you kind of got to be the best out West if you’re going to play for and win a Big Ten title.” Last season’s matchup between Oregon and USC wasn’t a de facto play-in game for the Big Ten Championship Game, but it was a tilt between two top-15 teams, with each team seemingly battling for an at-large playoff spot. Oregon won that game en route to its run to the CFP semis as Lincoln Riley and USC finished the year 9-4. Klatt expects Oregon to have another strong season in 2026, ranking the Ducks No. 1 in his Way-Too-Early Top 10. He’s also bullish about USC entering the 2026 season and thinks the Trojans can compete at a level if they’re able to make some tweaks in the trenches. “I think that’s a phenomenal game. USC’s confident,” Klatt said. “Their coaching staff’s confident. Lincoln’s confident. They feel like they’ve got a team that’s going to compete for and potentially be in the Big Ten Championship Game. They’ve got experience at the right positions. They need to get better on the offensive and defensive lines. They need to get better in their defensive front-seven. If they do, there’s a lot of confidence coming out, and we’ll know which team we’ll need to pay attention to from the West on Sept. 26.” 3. Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 28) You can’t make this list without the sport’s biggest rivalry, and Klatt knows that. “It always [delivers]. This one fell just below those other two, but this one’s always going to be right there,” Klatt said. “Pending on how these two teams, which lost the schedule lottery, get through their schedules, we always know that one of them is going to be vying for a spot in the conference championship game. You just anticipate it. You know it. The rivalry is there. And I can’t wait for that game, as always. It’s my favorite game.” To Klatt’s point, at least one of the two teams has needed to win “The Game” in order to reach the Big Ten title game in each of the past five years. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 of Klatt’s Way-Too-Early ranking, making it a strong possibility that this matchup could serve as another de facto play-in game for the Big Ten Championship Game. 2. Oregon at Ohio State (Nov. 7) When two teams that have made the CFP in each of the past two seasons meet up, that game will almost certainly have high stakes. Klatt expects that to be the case when OSU hosts Oregon on the first Saturday of November. However, Klatt also wonders if the Buckeyes’ relatively tougher schedule might impact how this game goes. “This one’s obvious to me, because these two teams and rosters play at the top of college football,” Klatt said. “That’s a monster game. By the way, that’s on the back of a trip out West for Ohio State to USC. … They’re going to be lobbying hard for a game that doesn’t kick off at 7 p.m. ET, so that they don’t have to wait all day, play their game and then fly home and get back to Columbus at 4 a.m., then have a short week of prep for the next week as Oregon comes to town. If you look at Oregon’s schedule, they’ve got a game at home against Northwestern [before the game against Ohio State].” 1. Ohio State at Indiana (Oct. 17) The No. 1 spot is a rematch of last season’s epic Big Ten Championship Game. Not only did Indiana win that game, 13-10, but it was a matchup between the only two teams that went undefeated in the regular season. While Klatt isn’t entirely sure if the Buckeyes will be undefeated by the time this matchup rolls along, he envisions that this matchup will have massive stakes in determining the Big Ten title race. “I think Ohio State at Indiana is likely the biggest game from a meaningful perspective toward the conference championship,” he said. “That one’s going to be a monster. Now, Ohio State’s already going to have played at Texas and at Iowa. So, they would already be tested on the road up to that point. Maybe they win one of those games. Maybe they win both of those games. But that game is going to be a phenomenal game. Indiana’s been so good at home. They’ve been so good, period.”