QB Stock Market Week 8: The Next Step Is The Hardest For Drake Maye, Caleb Williams

I left last week’s Caleb Williams-Drake Maye showdown wishing that the two quarterbacks could face off against each other more often. They’d make incredible rivals — not because of any animosity between the draft classmates. But because of how good they are, how their games overlap and how their stories overlap. They are both top 10 QBs. They are both in secure organizations where they can succeed for a long period of time. And whether we see them in direct competition, they will always compete over legacy. That’s what seems to come next for them. So let’s dive into their performances. Let’s deeply analyze Malik Willis from his first win with the Dolphins, J.J. McCarthy in his first start (and win) with the Giants, Aaron Rodgers in his mutinous performance and Bryce Young in his biggest stinker of the season. These aren’t your typical QB rankings. I’m focused on contextualizing the fluctuations of starters’ performances throughout the season. I don’t write about every quarterback every week, but I dive deeply into the most compelling performers. No one — not even Josh Allen — is safe at the top. No one — not even Tanner McKee — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds the most importance: What have you done for your team lately? Previous: Offseason | Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 Hey, the Dolphins won a game! Very cool. This is actually important in many ways for Malik Willis, who is probably not Miami’s QB of the future — but who could actively interfere with the plan to replace him. The Dolphins look like the obvious favorite to finish with the No. 1 overall pick, where they’d have the choice to take a QB. But this year’s crop of college QBs have been bad enough to diminish the hype around the incoming draft class. As of now, it appears some of the top prospects could (and in some cases should) return to school for another year. So if there aren’t a handful of options and the Dolphins slip out of contention for No. 1 overall, maybe Miami would actually give Willis another year. Maybe the Dolphins would draft Jeremiah Smith and let Willis send the ball to Smith 100 times a game. I’m a fan of giving Willis more time to develop, particularly with an offensive line and a group of playmakers who can actually help him out — which might be the case next year in Miami. But Willis will need to do a whole lot more to justify it. He looked solid and quick-thinking in the first half, but things got out of sync in the second half, when he was missing open receivers (by throwing off target or not throwing at all). There were flashes. But so far, the flashes are just that. The body of work has yet to declare QB1. There’s an unsettling ease to J.J. McCarthy’s playing style in New York. Where did this come from? He is whipping the ball around — particularly downfield — with a level of confidence and competence that we really haven’t seen from him. He has a strong arm, even if he’s not the best thrower at shaping passes away from defenders. And he’s making the most of his talents — and the Giants’ offense. Again, where did this come from? I’m not here to tell you he’s a different player — or that he’s born again as the prospect the Vikings once drafted No. 10 overall. No, he’s still kinda the same guy, with plenty of warts. He’s sometimes throwing the ball too hard and his accuracy can be spotty. There were examples of that this past Sunday and the previous one. But he’s having fun with talented and rangy pass-catchers in Malik Nabers, Malachi Fields and Isaiah Likely. And I’m having fun watching him. Here’s another thing that has been nice to see: He’s keeping the ball out of harm’s way. Given how aggressive he’s been, it’s likely that he’ll start to run into trouble. That’s just the nature of McCarthy’s playing style when he strays into a high-volume game plan. For now, he’s taking care of the football. His only turnover came on his first throw in a Giants uniform last week. I’ll give him a pass on that one. Can he keep this up? I don’t know. And that’s why I won’t waste time thinking ahead about a training camp QB competition in 2027 between Jaxson Dart and McCarthy. We are a long way away from that. For now, McCarthy is playing well. That’s all that matters for the playoff-hopeful Giants. I couldn’t help but crack up when ESPN’s Molly McGrath reported on air that Aaron Rodgers was going to take over playcalling for the offense against the Saints this week. He was frustrated with the results from coach Mike McCarthy. So Rodgers mutinied, which would’ve been a bigger deal if he didn’t have a long history of insubordination. And what happened with Rodgers’ brilliant mind at the mind? The Steelers immediately opened the game by going three-and-out. I imagine he’s tired of being a checkdown merchant, which he continued to be against the Saints. The funny thing is, Rodgers is seeing the fewest occurrences of split safety looks — the en vogue “shell” look where teams put two high safeties to contain the big play. He should be able to push the ball downfield. But he’s not. No one is afraid of Rodgers’ arm anymore. That said, I do want to point out just how awesome he was in delivering an absolute beauty of a deep ball to DK Metcalf this week against — what else — a single-high-safety look. This won’t change how defenses play him, because this type of play has been too few and too far between for Rodgers. There’s usually one throw per game where you watch Rodgers and think: he’s still got it. But the other 25-30 throws show his age. So the Steelers will keep generating most of their yards after the catch. They’ll design screens and quick passes that’ll help them move the chains. And that’s because the defenses know — even if Rodgers doesn’t — that he’s physically declined to the point where his physical tools cannot charge up an offense. It’s time for him to get out of McCarthy’s way. It’s time for Rodgers to surrender with the playcalling. And it’s time for the QB to accept his role as a game manager, which he’s actually good at. Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle need to be twin engines for the Steelers’ offense. Every quarterback is bad when his blocking is bad. The question is, how bad? The knock on Jared Goff has long been that he can’t handle pressure, which is totally true (even though he’s actually getting better this year!). Patrick Mahomes was brutal against the Seahawks, in large part because of Seattle’s pressure. Well, Young was genuinely awful against the Buccaneers, who generated pressure on 51.5% of his dropbacks in Week 7, per Next Gen Stats. Tampa Bay edge Yaya Diaby, in particular, completely owned Carolina offensive tackle Rasheed Walker. This is the type of game that troubles me about Young’s long-term prospects. Instead of simply being a mini-Goff, Young needs to learn to be a Brock Purdy impersonator. It’s not enough for Young to be a statuesque passer, because of games like this, where the defense creates a handful of advantages. Young needs to find ways to create plays, whether it’s navigating the pocket to avoid pressure — or rolling out of the pocket to generate explosives out of structure. Too many times this past Sunday, the Buccaneers got quick pressure and Young ducked for cover (and an eight-yard sack). It’s a good sign that Young is so confident and poised as a pocket passer. But that only gets you so far in today’s NFL. He has to learn to do more. So it turned out that A.J. Brown did not suddenly upgrade this offense. And until Brown starts to show up as the proper WR1 (if that even happens), Drake Maye will have to play like an MVP candidate for the Patriots’ offense to stay afloat. Thankfully for New England, Maye has settled back into what he does best: blend big plays with efficiency — and one or two dashes of what-the-hell-was-that? During the beginning of the season, Maye was making way too many awful decisions — so many that the Patriots couldn’t overcome them. But by reigning himself in, he has flipped from being the reason they’re losing to the reason they’re winning. That statement, of course, is complicated this week, because they didn’t beat the Bears. And Maye threw an interception that certainly tanked their chances. The red-zone turnover delivered a -12.6% hit to the Patriots’ win probability, per Next Gen Stats, which is sizable for a first-half play. Ultimately, Maye’s mistake was too big to overcome when he was playing against Caleb Williams, who was just incredible. It’s a discouraging loss for New England — but not necessarily a discouraging performance from Maye, who finished the game 24 of 31 for 321 passing yards, three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) and an interception. He was impressive when throwing to his tight ends, Hunter Henry and Eli Raridon (aside from the pick). Maye was even impressive when throwing to Brown, even with the Pro Bowler not hauling in one particular deep ball that was the type of play the Pats acquired him to make. Maye is back to his 2026 level. The question is whether he can ascend further as the season goes on. That’s where Brown could really help — whenever he gets around to playing like an elite receiver again. This is exactly what I was worried about when I predicted the Chiefs to miss the playoffs at the start of the season. They’re obviously not going to miss the playoffs. But they are going to need more firepower if they want to be real Super Bowl contenders. I’m just saying, Brian Thomas Jr. is available. The Chiefs need to call the Jaguars about BTJ. He had one hell of a second half, and that was all he really needed to whoop the Ravens. The Bengals might be third in the AFC North, but with such an easy schedule, I still think they have a real shot at finishing first in the AFC. This team lives and dies at the hands of Joe Burrow, and he looked sharp to close out this game. So it turns out that if you take away six of Brock Purdy’s wide receivers (Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Christian Kirk, De’Zhaun Stribling, Demarcus Robinson, Ricky Pearsall), the 49ers QB does actually struggle. It was a rough outing, particularly with this boneheaded interception to Falcons safety Jessie Bates. What’s next for Caleb Williams? I’ve already turned the page from his sterling performance in the Chicago Bears’ win over the New England Patriots last Thursday. Don’t get me wrong. I was outrageously impressed (and wrote about that Monday). But the Bears are already focused on Week 8 — and what’s on the horizon, immediately and distantly. Williams will have the Seahawks, who completely stifled the NFL’s best tackler-breaker, Kenneth Walker III — and, in turn, rendered Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense useless. This is what makes quarterbacking so difficult. And this is what makes developing with linear progress so difficult. Because while Williams has seemingly done nothing but improve since Ben Johnson arrived, the gains will soon be harder to come by. That’s just the nature of being this good. It’s a game of diminishing returns. How much more can you improve? This week, you can bet Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald will have a custom-fitted game plan to make life miserable for Williams. And against such a formidable defensive mind, Williams will have to keep doing what he’s been doing — searching for answers with his arm and his brain. But the degree of difficulty will be high. Just look at how hard it was this past Sunday for the best QB of this generation. Williams is playing better than Mahomes right now. And I think Williams can keep it up. He has ascended for good. No one is regression-proof, but he looks pretty close. Williams will have to keep working to calibrate how to use his tremendous tools — perhaps starting by taking a peek at the sack he took against the Patriots, which nearly cost the Bears the game. That was, by far, the worst mistake he made in Week 7. Inject this upcoming Ravens-Bills game into my veins. I cannot wait for another showdown between Josh Allen and (hopefully, if he’s healthy) Lamar Jackson.