QB Stock Market Week 7: Is C.J. Stroud Back? Is Patrick Mahomes Evolving?

There’s a lot we didn’t see coming this year. OK, there’s a lot I didn’t see coming this year. Bo Nix’s regression has been fierce. C.J. Stroud’s rebound has been remarkable. And Patrick Mahomes’ return to being … well, Patrick Mahomes, has been a joy to watch. Let’s get into all of that and more in this week’s QB Stock Market. These aren’t your typical QB rankings. I’m focused on contextualizing the fluctuations of starters’ performances throughout the season. I don’t write about every quarterback every week, but I dive deeply into the most compelling performers. No one — not even Josh Allen — is safe at the top. No one — not even Tanner McKee — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds the most importance: What have you done for your team lately? Previous: Offseason | Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 The Giants have a relatively easy decision to make this week. They’re almost definitely going to promote J.J. McCarthy to QB1. Winston is a good bridge QB or a backup. He can help you win a few games. But he’s not a QB that you can build an offense around. Now, I’m not totally sure that McCarthy is either. But in Week 6, he did enough to make us curious. In the fourth quarter against the Saints, he racked up 243 passing yards. Just in the fourth quarter! Justin Herbert’s season high is 226 yards. There were a few things that we saw from McCarthy in his 2026 debut. He layered a pass into a soft spot in the Saints defense (above), which was exactly the throw that the Vikings didn’t trust him to make. He also generated explosive plays, with four in this game — despite only posting 17 during his Vikings tenure. Let’s not sugarcoat it, though. McCarthy has been in New York for just a few weeks. He doesn’t know the depths of the offense. And in this appearance, he was playing against one of the league’s worst defenses in what initially looked like garbage time. And he completed only 11 of his 21 passes (5.24%) for 243 yards, a touchdown and an interception. This wasn’t a sterling or impeccable performance. It’s possible — likely even — that the Giants later turn back to Winston, who has been serviceable, especially given all the adversity that’s stacked against a backup. But McCarthy is a compelling option to, at least, explore while the NFC East is still an open race. He is also the type of asset who could appreciate and net a Day 2 pick this offseason. There are layers of upside. If he knows the offense well enough to play, let McCarthy play. Nix has been objectively bad this year, and he seems to get worse every week. Week 6 against the Seahawks might have been up there with his three worst performances of his career — going all the way back to his rookie year, when everyone proclaimed him a bust in those first few weeks. Nix’s performance was so conservative that he looked like he was playing scared, finishing the game with an average air yards attempt of 2.98. He checked it down, he threw underneath and he could not — for the life of him — complete a pass of more than 10 yards downfield. Normally, we’d chalk that up to Seattle’s defense. But 1) the Seahawks’ defense has been gettable this year for QBs, and 2) this has been more of the same from Nix for the past three weeks. That’s why Amazon Prime analyst Ryan Fitzpatrick boiled over after the game. “Bo Nix is not playing competitively,” Fitzpatrick said on air. “It’s almost disrespectful to the quarterback position how he’s playing quarterback right now. … He has no trust from his coach, he calls a screen play on third-and-8. … I can only imagine how Sean Payton feels. I mean, Sean Payton, [offensive coordinator] Davis Webb, everybody that blocks for him. He’s not competing right now.” Well, let’s talk about Payton and Webb. Because they haven’t made life easier for Nix. Payton named Webb the playcaller before the season. At that point, Webb changed the terminology for the playbook. Essentially, Nix learned a new language this offseason. So, when Payton took back playcalling duties two weeks ago, the head coach changed the terminology back to the original playbook. That means Nix has had to forget what he learned this offseason. That also means a newcomer such as receiver Jaylen Waddle has had to learn another language — after joining the team this offseason and learning the system with Webb’s terminology. I understand that Payton felt like he had to do this. But all this change must be difficult for the third-year QB to manage in a situation where he’s, frankly, already playing poorly. Even before the changes, Nix looked confused. Look no further than his previous game against the Rams when he was constantly putting the ball in harm’s way. I don’t know how the Broncos fix this — nor do I know how long it’ll take. This is on Nix. But it’s not only on Nix. I think Payton — with all this mismanagement — deserves blame for the QB’s regression. You would have no way of knowing that Tyler Shough is playing through two broken bones in his left hand. The dude was a heat-seeking missile for contact this past week against the Giants, particularly late in the game — when he put his body on the line to lock up a narrow win for the Saints. I don’t think that’s necessarily smart in the long term. But on a day when he completed 53.3% of his passes, it did call for him to make up for the lack of efficiency in the passing game with some efficiency in the rushing game. And to that point, the inefficiencies were not all on him. The Saints had five drops, per PFF, with a drop percentage of 23.8 — the highest of the season by far. No doubt, Shough also missed some chances. He had overthrows to receiver Bryce Lance in the second quarter for what would’ve been a big play — and also on a scramble play to tight end Juwan Johnson. But this was anything but a crisp performance from the entire Saints unit. I still like the ways Shough seems to be improving. I can’t help but mention that Nix’s regression is something that’s distinctly possible for Shough, who does many of the things well that Nix did last year. But on the whole, Shough is a more polished and consistent player than Nix. And so I don’t see a massive regression coming, particularly not with Jordyn Tyson back at practice this week. His highly anticipated return — coupled with running back Travis Etienne’s return down the line — could make the Saints’ offense into something special. This might be the finest performance of C.J. Stroud’s career. At this time last week, we were wondering if this Jaguars had the best defense in the NFL. They forced two interceptions out of Drake Maye. They forced two interceptions out of Joe Burrow. They sacked Deshaun Watson five times. And even after this shootout loss to the Texans, Jacksonville is third in points allowed per game (17.3). Its defense is excellent. Stroud was just better. He lit the Jags up for 312 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. His completion percentage over expected was 12.8%, per NextGen Stats. And it was not just about dinks or dunks. No, this performance was also about the big-time throws. Stroud delivered two deep passes that were so difficult and so impressive. The first was a shot along the sideline to Nico Collins in the first quarter, in which the Pro Bowl wideout laid out to haul in the perfectly placed pass. And that was only the second-best play. Even better, Stroud fired the ball downfield — with linebacker Dennis Gardeck blocking Stroud’s line of vision and arm follow-through — to receiver Jaylin Noel. With 45 seconds left in the second quarter, this throw helped the Texans get a score before the half in a tight game. The Texans won this game because of Stroud. Not because of DeMeco Ryans and the defense — or Collins. Not because of the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade. Think about how far he’s come in just the past nine months. The Jaguars are a playoff team — and perhaps the second-best team in the AFC behind the Chiefs. Think about what Stroud looked like against the Patriots and their elite defense in the postseason. It’s a sizable (and long-awaited) improvement for the fourth-year QB — and at a crucial moment ahead of his contract negotiations. Stroud was the No. 1 reason for the Texans’ win. He is the reason why they can still make the playoffs. He might even enter the MVP conversation if he can keep this up. It has been an impressive season for Jordan Love — but an especially impressive two weeks. While his stat line this past Sunday against the Cowboys (23-41, 277 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) won’t blow anyone away, know this: Love had three potential long touchdowns hit his receivers in the hands. There were two to Matthew Golden and one to Christian Watson. He also had a rushing TD. In other words — with a little luck (and help from his receivers) — this might’ve been a repeat performance from the previous week when he dropped bombs on the Chicago Bears’ defense. It’s not crazy to think Love would’ve had 400 passing yards. In one sense, I think Green Bay’s offense is becoming one-dimensional. And it’s the deep game. But for now, that has been enough to right the ship for the Packers, who started the season 1-2. Their running game is still abysmal. Their offensive line isn’t a group of world beaters. Running back Josh Jacobs should help them as he returns from the Commissioner’s Exempt List. Still, Love is going to have to carry this unit for the majority of the season, which isn’t something we’re accustomed to seeing him do. But after what we’ve seen him do recently — and throughout last year — it’s easy to believe he can handle the pressure. Joe Burrow’s completion rate is up to 71.4% this year, which would be a career high. His success rate (52.5%) is the second-best clip of his career. After years of slow starts, the Bengals are off to a strong one at 3-2. The only problem is that the rest of the AFC North is off to a stronger start — all sitting at 4-2. Trevor Lawrence saw the Texans’ most aggressive game plan of the season, with Houston blitzing at 39.5%, the highest blitz rate all year for their defense. He picked them apart, completing 8 of 17 throws for 126 yards and two touchdowns against the blitz. And still, with Stroud playing out of his mind, Lawrence’s production (four passing touchdowns) wasn’t enough. There is only one quarterback in the NFL who has a positive EPA per dropback against pressure. And it’s Patrick Mahomes. What does that mean? Only one quarterback in the entire league can add value — improving the Chiefs’ scoring abilities — when he’s pressured, per NextGen Stats. That’s the thing about pressure. That’s why teams pay enormous sums to edge players and even the rare defensive tackle who can rush the passer. It’s because every other quarterback in the league detracts from the offense when he’s pressured. Over the past five seasons, no QB has ever done this. Not even Mahomes. Josh Allen came the closest in 2022 (minus-0.02). So the real translation is that Mahomes is having an otherworldly season. Maybe quietly. Because I’m not sure folks have truly appreciated how good he’s been. The irony is that it’s not totally about Mahomes. It’s also about Kenneth Walker III, who has been so incredible that opposing teams have had no choice but to stack the box. Walker has rushed against the third-most stacked boxes among RBs — behind only the Ravens’ Derrick Henry and, interestingly, the Raiders’ Ashton Jeanty. And between those three against stacked boxes, Walker has recorded 3.7 rush yards over expected per carry, while Henry is at minus-0.3 and Jeanty is at minus-0.2. It’s no coincidence that Mahomes is having an unreal season against pressure while Walker has been unreal against stacked boxes. It’s just two players defying everything we know about football. It’s two players who are on another level. That’s why it hasn’t mattered so much who is playing left tackle or wide receiver for the Chiefs. Mahomes and Walker are currently the entities that matter most for their offense. They feed off each other and there’s nothing opposing defenses can do about it right now. For the first time this season, Purdy failed to complete a touchdown pass against the blitz. Which … some might see as a sign of an incoming regression from his MVP-caliber season. I’ll chalk it up to a game that wasn’t particularly competitive until late, thanks to the Commanders’ incompetence. He had the most absurd play of the week — a 12-yard push pass on third-and-8 that had no business being attempted. But it’s Josh Allen. So everything was fine. It was better than fine. It was a six-point play.