QB Stock Market Week 5: Don’t Overthink Brock Purdy’s Proficiency

Around the NFL, there’s still hesitation around Brock Purdy’s remarkable season. I don’t care. I think he’s QB1. There’s more hesitation around Jalen Hurts than ever. I get it. I still think he and the Philadelphia Eagles will be fine. There’s profound hesitation around Cam Ward. That … is complicated. We’ll get into it. Welcome back to the QB Stock Market. These aren’t your typical QB rankings. I’m focused on monitoring the fluctuations of starters’ performances throughout the season. No one — not even Purdy — is safe at the top. No one — not even Athan Kaliakmanis — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds the most importance: What have you done for your team lately? Previous: Offseason | Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 The beauty of Cam Ward has never been more in the eye of the beholder. After 21 appearances, Ward has 3,895 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He has completed 60.4% of his passes and his yards per attempt sit at a paltry 5.9. The Titans are 3-18 in his starts. But this year, his completion percentage is up. His yards per attempt are up. His sacks are down. His QB rating and QBR are up. We’re seeing itty bitty signs of process. It’s just difficult to take some of those signs seriously because Tennessee spends so much time playing from behind. On tape, there is plenty of the unevenness from his rookie year, where Ward makes a hard play look easy — and then makes an easy play look hard. It provides ammunition for anyone who thinks Ward’s development is on track — and for anyone who thinks he’s already a bust. His press conferences are suddenly a lightning rod for discussion. His nonchalance in the pocket might get (mis)interpreted as a lack of urgency. There will always be haters. But this isn’t that — not exactly. There is ample, legitimate ground to criticize Ward’s game. At the same time, with the situation being what it is for a recent No. 1 overall pick on a bad team, the Titans shouldn’t give up on Ward so soon. They drafted him as a project, and that’s what they got. This experiment needs to extend through 2027, and even though Bryce Young is a very different QB, his turnaround in Carolina is one that Tennessee should try to emulate. Meanwhile, it’s up to Ward to root out criticism-worthy moments, so that the beauty of his game is unequivocal. Let’s start with third down, shall we? It showed the worst sides of the Eagles’ offense this past Sunday versus the Rams. Jalen Hurts was 1 of 7 for five yards with a 39.6 passer rating. He saw a 90% blitz rate, which had him rolling right out of the pocket on practically every dropback. That’s how he had 4.02 seconds to throw. But he couldn’t make anything happen with that time, because the Rams were plastered to Philly’s wideouts — and Hurts’ arm isn’t strong enough for him to turn and throw across his body to the far side of the field, where the Rams (apparently wisely) left Hurts’ guys wide open. Hurts appeared to be in a constant state of panic. It was a constant swinging pendulum, where Hurts missed chances. Look at his third-and-14 in the second quarter where Makai Lemon was wide open. And then there were critical playcalls that felt just plain wrong. Look at the third-and-4 where the Eagles made 35-year-old Zach Ertz the primary target. They expect the old man (who missed all of training camp and is playing in just his second game this year) to win a one-on-one with the game on the line. I don’t like it! Not one bit! Hurts finished 12 of 27 for 93 yards with two passing touchdowns and 19 pressures. It’s actually a small miracle he took only four sacks. But he had no answer for the Rams’ blitz, which had him playing scared for the entire second half. He seemingly couldn’t bring himself to throw the ball downfield — let alone toward the middle of the field. Here’s the kicker, though: I think the Eagles will figure this out. Saquon Barkley will get healthy. So will DeVonta Smith. Lemon is an ascending player. And Jameis Winston is QB1 for the NFC East’s current leader. I’d bet Philly still makes the playoffs. Leave it to Deshaun Watson to ruin the Browns’ quarterback situation. He has done it for the past five years. And in what is almost definitely his final year, he appears to be doing it again. The Browns are 3-1. And Watson is playing fine — just well enough for them to not bench him. But not good enough for them to seriously consider extending him. Given all his injuries and poor performance, they should have moved on from him long ago but have allowed his contract to dictate their decision-making. In the coming offseason, they will be free of him. It’s just that — because Watson has assumed the role as facilitator — the Browns could actually make the playoffs this year. And if they do that, they might have a hard time getting the quarterback they’d like in this year’s draft.Watson is (mostly) a pocket quarterback who can operate coach Todd Monken’s offense, which highlights the team’s redeemable cast of young pass-catchers, from rookie receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion to second-year tight end Harold Fannin. I actually think Watson spends too much time trying to get the ball to Boston, sticking with him for too long and hesitating on throws downfield (which, against the Steelers, ruined the progression a few times — and once resulted in an interception). But it’s a small problem. The big one is that Watson can’t be the Browns’ long-term plan. And it’s starting to feel like he’s putting Cleveland in a situation where it might have to seek a veteran for 2027 — rather than targeting a top QB prospect in the upcoming class. This has been a time-machine season for Cousins, whose comfort in Klint Kubiak’s system has the 38-year-old QB playing some of the best football of his career again. And Cousins has done it without the help of a run game and without the help of a star receiver. (I know: Brock Bowers, of course, doesn’t hurt.) The biggest issue for Cousins is that he’s a quarterback who has and will always need playmakers to do the majority of the work for him. He’s back to being one of the NFL’s best point guards. But that’s really all he’s ever been — and it’s all he can be. The Raiders can be a good regular-season team with him at QB1. But you put Vegas and Cousins up against a team with superior talent, particularly at quarterback, and the Raiders are going to struggle to make plays when they matter most. Their final drive versus the Chiefs, which ended in a Cousins interception, showed their shortcomings at receiver. The whole game demonstrated their ongoing issues trying to run the ball (2.8 yards per carry). And though the Raiders experimented more with rookie Mike Washington because of Ashton Jeanty’s struggles, Washington was worse than Jeanty. But the bottom line is Cousins is a middle-class QB. Bowers is making life better for Cousins. Kubiak is, too. But … maybe you know where I’m going … I look forward to seeing what this team looks like next year. Fernando Mendoza should be ready. Maybe they can get him a playmaker at wide receiver. And that should unlock this offense in ways Cousins can’t. The Jaguars are a really good defense. Unfortunately for Joe Burrow, he was the latest test case to prove that. His two interceptions in Week 4 came on the heels of Drake Maye’s full-blown meltdown versus Jacksonville in Week 3 (with three interceptions). The Jags pressured Burrow 20 times on 54 dropbacks (34.5%). They blitzed on only 19% of passing plays, per Next Gen Stats. That pressure clearly affected Burrow, who threw both of his interceptions on pressure plays. Against pressure, his completion percentage was 52.9%. And without it, it jumped to 81.1%. That’s a massive split that basically explains how Jacksonville won the game. There’s one thing that’s lost in those numbers, however. It’s Ja’Marr Chase’s injury. He isn’t so much a blitz-beating receiver, but it helps to have a primary option open quickly when the rush is coming. Here’s an example from the first half on third down. Despite pressure from a blitzing Foyesade Oluokun, Burrow dropped the ball into a pinpoint spot for Chase to catch and run for a big gain. So you can see, this wasn’t a disaster of a game from Burrow. He completed 8.1% of his passes over expected. He did that while getting the ball out of his hands in 2.64 seconds in Week 4. And on the season, he’s ninth in expected points added per dropback (.07). The problem is that — even with all this context — I think this game might decide the No. 1 seed in the AFC. And if it does, Burrow will watch this film and feel like he should’ve been better. He probably couldn’t have thrown it more (with 54 attempts), but he could’ve done more with those throws, and — in particular — he could’ve avoided those INTs. Because … man, what was he thinking? What was he seeing? On both picks, he threw two balls right to the defense. Drake Maye outplayed Josh Allen on Sunday. We all saw it. But that isn’t to say Allen played poorly. It was more a testament to Maye’s impressive turnaround. But in this Allen-Maye competition, there was just that one throw that separated things. You probably know the one. It was Allen’s interception with a minute left in the game. There are layers of complexity that actually compound the badness. There was a sliver of hope for the play (thought I’d argue situationally, he should have held on no matter what). Allen pulled his arm back to throw, but pressure arrived and hit him. But he’s Josh Allen. So he didn’t go down right away. And again, he’s Josh Allen, so he thinks that his nuclear-grade arm can fit the ball into any window. Of course, this one had already closed. And the time it took between when the Patriots lineman hit him and the time he actually released the football was enough for safety Craig Woodson to make up ground and run under the ball for an interception. So, in real time, the decision was bad. But intended target Joshua Palmer made the decision even worse. Palmer has delivered some big plays in the clutch this year. But he was brutal in this game, with four targets and one catch for four yards. There was another target that didn’t appear in the stat sheet — a deep ball that he dropped (and which wouldn’t have counted because of a holding call from Bills tackle Dion Dawkins). Point is, there were plenty of receivers on the Bills team where you might understand why Allen wanted to force the ball. Keon Coleman, for example, was having a hell of a game. But Palmer? Yuck. No thanks. Against a really good Patriots defense, Allen was 23 for 33 with 253 yards and a touchdown … with the interception. He added a touchdown on the ground. But this game fell under the category of what C.J. Stroud did against the Bills just a few weeks ago. It’s just hard to give a quarterback credit for a game where his final drive faltered because of him. I think it has gotten to the point where we’re overthinking Brock Purdy. He is playing extremely well. Against the Broncos, Purdy had a clean game, finishing 19 of 30 for 218 yards, two touchdowns, no turnovers and no sacks. He also scrambled effectively, even if his 10 carries for 29 yards wouldn’t blow anyone away. This is the way to attack the Broncos defense. Look at what Patrick Mahomes did. It’s about patience, efficiency and dink-and-dunking. There has been some chatter about Purdy starting 10 of 20. He missed an early pass to Jacob Cowing, who ran a different route than what Purdy was expecting. Purdy missed on passes to George Kittle and Brandin Cooks — with the 49ers immediately appealing for DPI calls that never came. But most notably, he missed on a cross-body pass to Mike Evans in the first half, leaving the ball low and behind the 6-foot-5 wideout in the end zone. It was a missed opportunity, but you can at least see why Purdy missed. The end zone angle showed Broncos safety Talanoa Hufanga creeping toward Evans for a potential interception. That’s why Purdy put the ball behind Evans. And then there was the depth of target on his game-winning touchdown to George Kittle: minus-1 yard. Kittle then took that screen pass to the house. I get it. The biggest play of the game was a routine pass that anyone could make. And to that point, Purdy’s season lacks an MVP moment. He lacks the put-the-team-on-your-back plays that often whips votes for an MVP award, particularly at a moment in time where Allen, Jackson and Mahomes are so much fun to watch. Purdy didn’t deliver an MVP moment against the Broncos in Week 4. But … he absolutely delivered with good passes downfield to Evans and Kyle Juszczyk. He had a moment of creativity out of structure on his touchdown pass to Deebo Samuel. He continually moved the sticks despite the Niners’ running game still being just OK. More importantly, he’s maximized a receiving corps led by a banged up Evans and missing three wideouts who were supposed to be ahead of Samuel coming into the season (Ricky Pearsall, Christian Kirk and De’Zhaun Stribling). I can’t promise that Purdy will win the MVP. He probably won’t. But given how he played an elite defense and how he’s by far the best QB in the NFL against the blitz, I believe that he’ll finish the season in the conversation as one of the league’s best quarterbacks — and as a Super Bowl contender. Again, let’s not overthink what’s abundantly clear.