Inside The Garage: Can Denny Hamlin Win The Chase After Wild First Five Races?

Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Las Vegas) — Denny Hamlin, an avid golfer, used a golf analogy to explain his 2026 championship hopes midway through The Chase. “You’ve just got to play the ball from where it lies,” Hamlin told me and other reporters after a disappointing 16th-place finish at Las Vegas. “And where it lies is we’ve got a little gap we’ve got to make up. “So we’ve got to perform at our best.” The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has 64 career Cup victories but still seeks his first Cup title. This year seemed like one of the best opportunities as he entered the 10-race Chase as the top seed. But he hasn’t performed at his best in The Chase. He has finishes of 18th, ninth, eighth, third and 16th. The latest finish was frustrating. The team gave up the lead in the opening stage by pitting and restarting 10th, putting Hamlin in traffic. He got up to fourth before he got in the marbles and spun, damaging the underbody of the car. He later rallied for a potential respectable finish before his fuel pressure cut off under caution, causing him several spots before the start of the final stage. Hamlin didn’t seem to have as many of these situations in the regular season and he has to hope they are behind him for the final five races of The Chase. At Las Vegas, he lost 16 points to leader Kyle Larson in the standings, dropping to 40 points behind Larson (but still second overall). “Definitely not smooth [in The Chase],” Hamlin said. “We haven’t had any disaster days, but we certainly have had our fair share of not performing. “[At Vegas], obviously leaving a bazillion points on the table considering where we were on speed before the wreck.” Hamlin had predicted that as the top seed, he would need to average 40 points a race to have a good shot at the title. So far, he has averaged 35.6. Larson has averaged 54.6. “That’s what we kind of averaged in the regular season, and we had a really good regular season,” Hamlin said at a news conference Saturday. “So if someone’s going to go out there and perform great in the last 10 and negate kind of what they did in the first 25, then that’s great performance. “It was a goal set out that I think most people wanted to achieve, and they were on pace for that, but that doesn’t mean that that’s going to be good enough. I’m definitely not driving to a point total. I’m driving to try to get the best result and then stack as many points as we can. I felt as though if you average it out, that’s what you needed.” The way Larson is going, Hamlin is going to need to average more over the final five races. And it certainly is doable. He has been strong at most styles of tracks this year. He was third at Charlotte earlier this year, fifth at Phoenix and second at Martinsville. All those tracks are coming up in the final five. During the postseason, Hamlin tends to focus on just his driving role at Joe Gibbs Racing rather than his team co-ownership duties at 23XI Racing. Hamlin, who has said he expects that 2027 will be his last season, said he has tried to keep himself from feeling burned out this late in the season. “I’ve actually taken a little more time off,” he said. “My team really does a good job of front-loading appearances early in the year to … give me some more time for The Chase and things like that. “We always were conscious of saving some in the tank for the last stretch run. I felt like that’s really worked well for us, and that’s something that we approach the same this year. It’s hard, it’s a grind, but you have to go get that extra little bit that you feel like you don’t have.” His team owner, Super Bowl winning coach Joe Gibbs, thinks Hamlin has what it takes to win that first title. “We’re, what, 40-something back?” Gibbs said in his post-race news conference. “I think it’s pretty miraculous considering everything that’s happening these first five races. Everybody can see, you win a race, … you [can] get 70-something points. I think that’s where we are with the 11 [of Hamlin]. “We need a win, and I think we’ll be right on top of it. We have five races. I only go after the first five [have gone], it’s been wild. I think the next five will be the same way.” Buescher, Preece On RF Without K With the news that Brad Keselowski and RFK Racing could not reach a contract extension for Keselowski as a driver, Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece know they need to help the team through the transition. RFK Racing President Chip Bowers said the team plans to buy out Keselowski’s equity interest in the team. “Brad has been a great teammate, a great part of their ownership group in rebuilding, but the house needs to keep being built,” Preece told me and other reporters. “So we’re going to keep trying to do everything right and still have success.” Preece will at least get to be in a chartered car next year. The team will have two charters, meaning Preece will be in the Daytona 500 with nothing to sweat. “I’ve been a part of that rodeo before,” Preece said. “It’s nice to be on the side where you’re chartered.” Where will the drivers miss Keselowski the most? “His knowledge and expertise through the years has been instrumental in helping me continue to improve,” Buescher told me and other reporters. “That’s been my case everywhere I’ve been and all the teammates I’ve had through the years that have been able to gather so much from them. “And Brad has been just on a step above that — just driving for him and with him over the past five years.” In The News — Sheldon Creed will move from Haas Factory Team to Sam Hunt Racing next season. The O’Reilly Series points leader said he had hoped to stay at HFT but negotiations didn’t pan out. He said it will be the first time he doesn’t have to bring money to have a ride. — Jake Garcia will replace Chandler Smith in the Front Row Motorsports No. 38 truck next year. Garcia has driven at ThorSport Racing for the last couple of seasons. — The aerodynamic package for Talladega will be the same as Daytona. That’s except for the spoiler being shortened from four inches to 3.5 inches as NASCAR tries to create more separation between the drivers and for them to have more ability to make moves. Stages are the same as the spring at 98-45-45 — meaning they won’t have to pit for fuel in the last two stages, so fuel strategy will not be an issue. — Arrow McLaren announces that is part of a new multiyear partnership (which includes both the F1 and INDYCAR teams) with financial services firm Edward Jones. The company will sponsor Scott Dixon in the 2027 Indianapolis 500. — INDYCAR has re-appointed its Independent Officiating Board for another year, which includes Raj Nair, Ray Evernham and (FIA appointee) Ronan Morgan. Scot Elkins will continue as the Managing Director of Officiating (he reports to the IOB board). The board has control over officiating and technical penalties/sanctions, keeping it at arms’ length from Penske Entertainment Corp. (which also fields teams in the series). RIP Two-time Indianapolis 500 winner Gordon Johncock died Sept. 28 at age 90. He had 25 career wins in the series. Social Spotlight They Said It “If I would have somehow lost the race, I would have been black-and-blue getting on the plane pretty easily.”— Chase Briscoe on how his crew chief would have reacted