2026 College Football Week 4 Expert Picks: Back Low Scoring In Iowa-Michigan

The Big Ten has some huge matchups this weekend. And I have my eye on two of those. One is the Iowa-Michigan tilt, and the other is my Ducks’ game against USC. Here’s how I’m wagering on two of the biggest games of the college football Week 4 slate. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Simply put, no one is going to score in this game and I’m not afraid to take the very public Under side. In the first nine quarters of the season, Michigan had four touchdowns across playing Western Michigan, Oklahoma and UTEP. Two of those four touchdowns were Hail Marys to end the WMU game and a short-field touchdown after an Oklahoma interception. The Wolverines did score a bunch in the second half against UTEP but they should score against UTEP. Now they face an Iowa defense that’s the same defense every season. The Hawkeyes don’t allow explosive plays. They are physical and sound. They sit in zone and are OK with forcing teams to dink and dunk. They are going to force Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood to beat them, which feels difficult for him at this stage of his career. On the other side is the Iowa offense and guess what … that unit is still not explosive. They played one defense that could sort of punch back in Iowa State. They scored 16 points, had under 300 yards of offense and were 33 percent on third down. Iowa does have an actual wide receiver with Tony Diaz, but Michigan will just take him away. Michigan’s defense is seventh in yards per play and has been good at preventing points. I don’t see how Iowa scores much in this game. It’s also worth discussing the coaching staffs. Michigan’s Kyle Whittingham and Iowa’s Kirk Frentz are extremely comfortable playing a low-scoring match. Both coaches will stress protecting the football, running the ball and punting. We may see multiple punts on their opponent’s 40-yard line. It’s a field-position-battle type of game. I like the Under in this one. My Ducks are going to win the game but I’d rather not wager on the spread. I’m going to target a player prop and that’s quarterback Dante Moore’s Over passing. There are many reasons why I think Dante Moore is going to pass for a ton of yards. For starters, the Oregon offense has leaned more into the passing game this season with the rushing attack not being as explosive as last season. Moore threw 38 times against Boise State for 378 yards. He only threw for 191 yards against Oklahoma State in a game where he looked disjointed. However, fewer drops and he’s near 250 yards. Oregon has a mismatch in this game with their receivers and tight ends against USC’s shaky pass defense. USC’s pass defense is 103rd in success rate and that’s against San Jose State, Fresno State, Louisiana and Rutgers. Rutgers was the only team of those four that could pass the ball (and that’s being generous) and their quarterback threw for 252 yards on only 18 completions. Oregon could also be chasing USC’s scoring in this game and the Ducks will need to keep up with yards and points. That would be on the arm of Moore to make happen.