Can USC Survive At Indiana? Is Texas On Upset Alert? Klatt’s Week 11 Picks

It’s win-or-go-home time for a handful of teams ahead of the College Football Playoff. After LSU suffered its third loss to Alabama, can the Tigers host Texas and spoil the Longhorns’ CFP hopes in a Week 11 matchup? USC is coming off a huge upset over then-No. 2 Ohio State followed by a bye; they hit the road to face the No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers. If USC is handed its third loss of the season, the Trojans could be in trouble with the CFP committee. The Hoosiers need a win, too, however, as they were dropped to ninth in the latest CFP rankings during their own bye week. Texas Tech heads to Oklahoma State for a top-25 Big 12 contest that could most certainly be an offensive shootout between Texas Tech’s Thomas Castellanos and Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker. What does FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt think about a decisive Week 11 slate? Here are Klatt’s picks of the week. Spread: Indiana -7.5Moneyline: Indiana -285, USC +230 Klatt’s thoughts: “In the Big Ten, USC at Indiana. Indiana is favored by 7.5 … Indiana is welcoming USC, though both teams are off of their off week, so [they both had] a couple of weeks to prepare. My biggest question mark in this game is not actually about Indiana, and I know that there are some question marks surrounding Indiana and their offense and their quarterback, but my biggest question for this game is actually for USC. What version of USC are we going to see in Bloomington on Saturday? Because Lincoln Riley’s team has shown us that they can win some big games, and then they’ve shown us that they can play really poorly on the road, namely at Wisconsin, and not have a ton of answers on the offensive side and not try to run the football. So it’s tough for me because one of these programs is very consistent, and they’re going to play the game in front of them, and they’ve done that incredibly well over the last 25. I gave this stat in yesterday’s show: Indiana has won 24 of their last 25 football games, and a national championship mixed in there. Their only loss was a foot out of bounds by six inches to Ohio State when Julian Sayin was in. “So yes, my question is going to be about USC in this game. What version do you get? Because to beat Indiana, it has to be, not better to be, it has to be the best version of USC, the buttoned-up version of USC: no turnovers, no penalties, sustain a run game, play good defense and tackle in space. It has to be all of those things for USC to go to this place and win. We just don’t see this team losing many games because they play the game in front of them. They typically win the field position battle. They almost always win the turnover battle, and they win because they play great defense. Indiana’s defense is very difficult to play schematically. Their defensive line is one of the best defensive lines in the country … “I can’t wait to see Charlie Becker with a healthier quarterback, whether that’s Josh Hoover or Grant Wilson, because I think Becker is one of the best players in college football … Becker is sensational, coming off eight grabs, 149 yards, and a touchdown against Minnesota. He’s putting up monster numbers. This guy is going to be a top 10 or 12 draft pick in next year’s NFL Draft. So here we go. What’s the pick, Joel? Well, USC has struggled to run the ball this year. They’re 100th in the country in yards per carry … Yeah, that game against Wisconsin just looms in my mind. So I’m going to have to go Indiana here. I’m going to give the 7.5 a go. “Indiana wins it 28-20 at home, and I’ll give the 7.5.” Klatt’s straight-up pick: IndianaKlatt’s picks against the spread: Indiana -7.5 Spread: Ohio State -12.5Moneyline: Ohio State -470, Northwestern +360 Klatt’s thoughts: “Northwestern at Ohio State. Ohio State is favored by 12.5 in this one. I think if I know [Ohio State] well, I believe that you’re going to get a good version of Ohio State. I thought that last week, and for the first quarter [against Oregon], I thought that that was true. And then the fake punt happens, and then it just steamrolls, snowballs, whatever you want to call it. In this ball game, they are going to stick with QB Luke Fahey. I was a little bit surprised at that. I was surprised that he was in the game for the entirety against Oregon with the way that it was going. Now they’re back at home. I think the fan base wants to see Tavien St. Clair. It’s not going to happen at the start of the game. It’s pretty clear in the way that Ryan Day has talked about that situation that Tavien has not earned the trust of the coaches or the players in the organization. If he had, he would have been on the field by now … If it’s [Northwestern’s] Nicco Marchiol, I like Ohio State. If it’s Aidan Chiles, I think that they can put up a fight. But the bottom line is that Northwestern has been banged up in the secondary, and they’ve struggled in that area to this point. “And you still have Jeremiah Smith. Now, again, again, how bought in is Ohio State? I think that they’re going to be bought in. This is a proud program. These guys want to leave somewhat of a legacy. Jeremiah Smith still has a lot to play for, not just in the stat sheet, but potentially in New York for a Heisman Trophy. And you never know. But you never know if you just run the table, let the chips fall where they may. One of the questions I have for Ohio State is about their defense. They’ve obviously got something to prove. They gave up 30 then 41 in the last two games. I will say though, both of those teams, USC and Oregon, had elite talent on the outside. I don’t know if that’s the case with Northwestern. In order to kind of expose the Ohio State defense, because the Ohio State defense had to take some risks in both of those games, they do have to fix some of their alignment issues. They have been misaligned several times. “I’m going to take Ohio State 34-20. Ohio State covers the 12.5.” Klatt’s straight-up pick: Ohio StateKlatt’s picks against the spread: Ohio State -12.5 Spread: LSU -4.5Moneyline: LSU -180, Texas +150 Klatt’s thoughts: “Texas at LSU. LSU’s season is on the line in this one after suffering their third loss of the season last week against Alabama. Texas is on that three-game winning streak. Arch Manning is playing a lot better. They dropped two in a row in back-to-back games. That was a big win last week over Missouri on the road … Even last week against Keelon Russell, they were able to produce some pressure. Now they didn’t get the sacks that they needed, but they had 13 quarterback pressures. They only got them down to the ground twice, though. Russell is a better pocket manipulator than Arch Manning is. He made some plays and some throws in that game, and Alabama was fairly committed to running the football. Alabama’s game plan was pretty remarkable last week. They were a bend don’t break defense. It allowed Lane Kiffin to just, you know, gobble up the yards in the middle of the field. Then, they stopped him in the red zone, fourth down, so on and so forth. And then they ran the football, and they were able to do that fairly effectively. “Texas has struggled in pass protection this year. This is not the game that you want to struggle in pass protection. If you want to protect the quarterback, you’ve got to commit to running the football. I don’t know if Texas is going to be able to do that on the road. I think that Arch reverts back to the turnover Arch that we saw earlier in the year because of that pressure. And they’re on the road. It’s going to be at night. I just think that LSU is going to put them in a bit of a bind because I don’t think Texas is going to be able to sit there and run the football like they were able to run the ball against Ole Miss earlier in the year. LSU is leaning on Sam Leavitt a little bit. I think Leavitt made some mistakes, in particular on fourth down last weekend. But they’ve got talent, they gained a lot of yards. I don’t expect them to go 0-for-4 on fourth down and lose the turnover margin by two in this game. That was the difference last week against Alabama. I think that it’s flipped … They win the turnover battle, and they win the game at home. “LSU wins the game 30-24, and they cover the 4.5.” Klatt’s straight-up pick: LSUKlatt’s picks against the spread: LSU -4.5 Spread: SMU -1.5Moneyline: SMU -110, Wake Forest -110 Klatt’s thoughts: “Wake Forest at SMU, big one in the ACC. The winner is likely to face Miami in the ACC championship game. Two really high-scoring offenses in this one. Quarterback Gio Lopez sat out last week. That was precautionary. He should be good to go this week. Wake Forest wide receiver Carlos Hernandez has been great for them, averaging over 100 yards per game. Jake Dickert has done a great job at Wake Forest in his two seasons. They’re in a position now to make a run to the ACC championship game and potentially to the playoff. Their only loss was against Miami, but now they’ve got to go on the road and face SMU in a location that they generally don’t lose. In fact, SMU has not lost an ACC home game since they joined the conference three years ago … QB Kevin Jennings has been much better from a turnover perspective lately. “I think it’s a high-scoring game, but for me, SMU at home, Rhett Lashlee at home, Kevin Jennings at home. That’s when he can be a special player, and I think that he wins the game. I think that they beat Wake Forest in a high-scoring game. It’s only a 1.5 point spread. “I think that SMU covers the 1.5, SMU 42-35. They get the job done.” Klatt’s straight-up pick: SMUKlatt’s picks against the spread: SMU -1.5 Spread: Oklahoma State -3.5Moneyline: Oklahoma State -170, Texas Tech +142 Klatt’s thoughts: “Texas Tech at Oklahoma State. Let’s get a good old-fashioned Big 12 shootout, shall we? I mean, that’s what I want. Tech had one with West Virginia last week. Oklahoma State’s been putting up a million points lately. I mean, come on, let’s go … Thomas Castellanos has injected some serious life into that Tech offense over the last two games. He’s been a huge threat with his legs. J’Koby Williams has been good for them at running back as well. Drew Mestemaker, I think this guy is phenomenal. He can make every single throw. His tape is fantastic. He’s going to be one of the first quarterbacks taken in this NFL Draft. Mestemaker can do it all. He’s averaging nearly 350 total yards per game and has 33 total touchdowns. So the guy, like he’s going to score some points. I think Tech is going to score some points. Caleb Hawkins is fantastic for Oklahoma State. I think he’s one of the more underrated players that we have in the country. “Stillwater is going to be jumping. Oklahoma State still has a path to the Big 12 championship game, although it’s narrow, but it’s still a path. And Texas Tech is sitting there, and they’re trying to get back to the Big 12 championship game after winning that conference a year ago. So, what do I think is going to happen? I think Oklahoma State wins the game. They’re at home. Mestemaker is fantastic. If they get into a shootout, they’re going to be comfortable in that. Even though Tech could probably be comfortable in that situation as well with what just happened against West Virginia last week. But now you’re going to get into a shootout against Mestemaker, and I like Mestemaker in that situation. “How about this for a score? I like Oklahoma State 50-45, covering the 3.5.” Klatt’s straight-up pick: Oklahoma StateKlatt’s picks against the spread: Oklahoma State -3.5