QB Stock Market Week 9: Who’s Been The Best Starter In The First Half Of 2026?

Josh Allen didn’t play particularly well this weekend — and the Buffalo Bills QB managed to score three touchdowns on the way to a rout of the Baltimore Ravens. But did Allen’s off day open the door for a new No. 1? I have more on that — and on Jared Goff, Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert and others — in this week’s QB Stock Market. These aren’t your typical QB rankings. I’m focused on contextualizing the fluctuations of starters’ performances throughout the season. I don’t write about every quarterback every week, but I dive deeply into the most compelling performers. No one — not even Josh Allen — is safe at the top. No one — not even Joe Fagnano — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds the most importance: What have you done for your team lately? Previous: Offseason | Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 Now what? For years, Herbert has been a clear-cut solution to the Chargers’ problems. He elevated them when they were down. He optimized their talent and offset poor coaching. Now it’s more complicated. He is making two or three terrible throws per game — netting at least one interception per game. And so (while he’s actually solid on most his other throws), his turnovers have been costly. For the first time in his career, he’s an active participant in the demise of the Chargers’ season. He’s a part of the reason why they look like one of the most hopeless franchises — worse even than the Miami Dolphins, who have somehow started to turn things around with a roster that boasts less talent than the Chargers’. Herbert threw two interceptions this past Sunday, and the first pick was just as awful and inexcusable as the second. There was otherwise plenty to like on his film. (I promise!) But it’s hard to get excited about the things he does well because the turnovers this year have been so harmful. He’s constantly playing from behind, and likely because he’s the only person on the team who can make a play to win it, he is taking too many risks. In turn, he’s making a lot of plays that shoot the Chargers in the foot. In Week 8, the Chargers were competitive with the Rams — until Herbert’s first pick shifted the momentum of the game toward Sean McVay’s squad. What’s most troubling: Herbert is developing bad habits that might be hard to shake in 2027 and beyond. The Chargers are endangering further regression of a QB who basically everyone thought would be elite by now. But the Chargers won’t bench Herbert. That’s just not Jim Harbaugh’s move here — particularly when the backup is DJ Uiagalelei. (Who?) So the other potential step is to fire offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel and return to Harbaugh’s system from the previous two years. But you’d be doing that in the middle of the season when it’s really unlikely to change the 0-7 Chargers’ fortunes in 2026. It also would look worse before it looked better. (Take the Broncos as an example: changing playcallers and playbooks in the middle of the season. They got worse for two or three weeks — before improving this week against the Chiefs.) That’s probably the right way to go, and perhaps Harbaugh is considering it, given he was very vague and evasive at his latest postgame press conference when asked about McDaniel’s job security. There’s a good player here. Herbert can still be a really good QB. Outside of interceptions, you don’t typically see a head coach openly criticize a QB’s mistake. But that’s what coach Kevin O’Connell did when assessing a failed fourth-down conversion attempt early in the fourth quarter in the Vikings’ Week 8 loss to the Lions. O’Connell said Murray waited too long to let loose a pass. The QB’s hesitancy was all the rush needed to get to him. And so when Murray finally threw, the ball fell harmlessly incomplete. The problem isn’t just that Murray missed the crucial throw. It isn’t even necessarily that O’Connell is openly highlighting the mistake. It’s that this mistake has been surprisingly common for the veteran QB since taking over the Vikings offense. And if there was a game where Murray could help carry the Vikings, it should have been against the Lions’ defense, which has allowed the most passing yards per game and 10th most points per game. And yet Murray looked bad. Maybe worse than usual. At the end of the second quarter, O’Connell appeared to reset his playcalling to help his QB find a rhythm. They moved to the quick game with easy completions — which Murray badly needed because (even with the stat-padding WR screens and checkdowns), he went into halftime having completed 7 of 15 throws for 86 yards and an interception. That turnover handed points to the Lions before the half. And it was a throw that Murray should never have attempted, with cornerback D.J. Reed standing with perfect leverage in coverage to defend (or, in this case, catch) the throw. Murray is waiting too long to confirm — rather than throwing with anticipation (which is sort of what Kevin O’Connell’s offense is built upon). He’s missing open receivers and open windows to throw. His best throw — and he had just a few good ones in Week 8 — was a seam route to T.J. Hockenson. You can’t build an offense around that throw. The Kyler Murray experiment was compelling, given his unique talents as a thrower and runner. But so far, Murray’s uniqueness has made for a square-peg-round-hole situation in Minnesota. I wrote down the following in my notes: accuracy issues, particularly on the run. That was from this past Sunday night against the Eagles when Jayden Daniels finished with a win — yet went just 16 of 29 for 217 yards and one touchdown. His completion percentage over expected (-5.3%) felt generous. The Commanders QB missed open receivers with startling regularity. It’s not the Daniels that we know. Just look at his draft profile from 2024 on NFL.com: “Anticipatory thrower with accuracy and feel for attacking zone windows.” Daniels, in fact, was such a good thrower on the move that this was also in there: “Substantially more accurate on rollouts than as a scrambling passer.” That’s not the Jayden Daniels of 2026. In Week 8, he was demanding more of his receivers than he ever has with his off-target throws. Consider, too, how many circus catches Chig Okonkwo and Treylon Burks had to make. And those throws were technically “on target.” One of the misfires came immediately after Daniels nearly left the game, taking a big hit to the midsection. It makes you wonder whether the attrition of playing QB behind this OL — and taking so many hits — is impacting his ability to deliver the ball with his patented accuracy. The good news is, Daniels’ decision-making has continued to look sharp from down to down. He doesn’t turn the ball over. He avoids sacks when he can. He obviously had a pair of infamously bad moments earlier this year. But he still looks like a QB who knows what he’s looking at — and knows what to do with the ball. So the Commanders need to figure out — urgently — why he seems so scattered as a thrower. Because above all, they must preserve his strengths, even if the staff has too many issues to develop him properly. Jared Goff got a signature win. Did he get help from his running back? Of course. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown. Did he get help from his defense? Yes. I did not see them frustrating the Vikings quite like this. But Goff did what he has done all year, which was to facilitate and set up the offense for success. Which sounds kinda boring because it is kinda boring. His stat line wasn’t all that awesome. He was 18 of 25 for 176 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception. Even the advanced stats were … meh. His completion percentage over expected was -1.9%, per Next Gen Stats. But there’s context: The Vikings blitzed on 26 of 29 dropbacks (89.7%) in Week 8. All but three! It was the highest blitz rate by a team since at least 2018, breaking the previous record set by … these Vikings in Week 7. (They blitzed the Colts on 85.2% of dropbacks, per Next Gen Stats.) Despite that, Goff tied the record for completions against the blitz (17) and managed 130 yards, a touchdown and an interception. That’s pretty good, especially because the Vikings’ blitzes are a head-spinning array of concepts that are designed (by the best defensive coordinator in the NFL, Brian Flores) to turn a QB into a shell of himself. And it didn’t work against Goff. He has the reputation of folding under pressure. He has been worse against the blitz this year than he has been since 2023, with an EPA per dropback of .13 against the blitz, per Next Gen Stats. And I’ve been holding that stat — among others — against him as he’s had an elite season of counting stats: 1,964 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, one interception. But this game went a long way in reassuring me that those counting numbers are largely indicative of how well Goff is playing. His offensive line has been outstanding. His skill players are terrific. And it’s all linked to Goff’s performance. I’ve got to give him credit for a well-managed game against the league’s most intimidating defense. Trevor Lawrence dismantled the Colts with such a ruthless hand that Indianapolis might actually get less on the trade market for their big pieces. He and the Jaguars made it abundantly clear that the Colts don’t care anymore. Jacksonville is dangerous. There’s a real chance that Brock Purdy will get receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Either way, I expect Purdy to absolutely light up the Raiders this week. As rough as it was for the Chiefs to lose their second straight game, this performance was entirely unlike Week 7, when Mahomes looked like crap. No, he played well enough to win against the Broncos. I remain impressed with Mahomes’ season, even as KC skids. Week 8 was not exactly Josh Allen’s finest performance. Even as the Bills blew out the Ravens (thanks largely to the fact that Baltimore had to play QB3 Joe Fagnano), the final score and stat line don’t totally represent how dysfunctional things were for Buffalo. So while I’d normally roll my eyes at a coach who criticizes his team after a game with a lopsided scoreline, I nodded my head at Joe Brady when he said the following: “I think our standard wasn’t good. I thought our execution, our details, penalties, and fumbles — I thought we started off fast in that first drive, but then I felt like we kind of lost our way, in terms of some of the little things.” Allen was no exception. He missed receiver Keon Coleman for what would’ve been a long touchdown in the first half. Even on D.J. Moore’s leaping grab in the third quarter, the receiver had to spin backward to make the grab. At multiple points in the game, Allen whipped fastballs into tight areas in hopes that he could sneak them by defenders, but the results were tipped passes and drops. Some of this was a credit to the Ravens’ defense. Some of this was Allen allowing a lack of precision — and perhaps even a sense of complacency — into a game where Lamar Jackson exited after one play. I’m not worried about Allen. He’ll be just fine. And after all, he scored three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). The dude is a machine. But the Bills as a whole are starting to show some weaknesses and vulnerabilities. Allen can and will compensate for those issues, scoring more and more and more for a defense that never seems effective. He did that this past weekend. He’ll probably do that next weekend. But to get to the Super Bowl, I think the Bills’ defense will need to get its act together. Let’s look back at 2024 for a second. In Week 16, Caleb Williams (then a rookie QB) and the Bears lost, 6-3, to Mike Macdonald (then a rookie head coach) and the Seahawks. Williams looked bad — OK, extremely bad — with 160 passing yards, three sacks and two fumbles (none lost). Now think about what Williams did to Seattle on Monday night. He was 24 of 34 for 247 yards and a touchdown, with just one sack. He operated an offense that looked relentless and, at times, unstoppable. And for all the love for the Seahawks defense (which is deserved) for their high IQ, it was Bears coach Ben Johnson who — with the help of Williams — proved to have the smartest unit in football. They ran quick snaps to expose the Seattle’s disguises. They had a brilliant piece of sequenced playcalling, where they ran up the middle to the 1-yard line, where they yelled that they were going to run the play again — only to … run play-action for an easy touchdown pass. After that play opened up scoring, Williams had words with his teammates on the sideline. “I don’t give a f— who they are,” Williams said. Nor should he. Because wolves do not concern themselves with the opinions of sheep. And the Bears apparently do not concern themselves with game plans from the Seahawks. Williams is a destroyer of defensive game plans. For the first time in his career, he is the pro quarterback that he was meant to be. In other words, he is the QB that no one wants to face.