NFL Award Predictions: Will Matthew Stafford Or Patrick Mahomes Win MVP?

Matthew Stafford had his best year as a pro last season, posting video-game numbers as he nearly led the Los Angeles Rams to a second Super Bowl appearance in his five seasons with the team. Even more impressive, Stafford did it with a balky back at 37 that forced him to miss a large portion of training camp. Now, even with the Rams as heavy Super Bowl favorites, it’s fair to wonder if Stafford can put together a repeat MVP performance in his 18th season. The Rams have already hedged against that happening by selecting their quarterback of the future, Ty Simpson, in the first round of April’s draft. And by trading for Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, along with the return of All-Pro Aaron Donald from a two-year retirement, Los Angeles is a lot stronger on defense than it was a year ago. “I can’t sit here and think about trying to do exactly what we did last year and do it again from a personal standpoint,” Stafford told reporters in training camp. “I’m just trying to play good football and be the best quarterback for this team I can be. If I do that, I think we’ll be where we want to be.” Vegas oddsmakers must have been listening to Stafford during training camp. At 14-1 odds, Stafford has the ninth-best odds to win the award for a second year in a row. MVP Watch predicted the last two winners of the MVP Award in Stafford and Josh Allen, and both went down to the wire. This year, we’ve expanded the column to include a weekly look at the top players vying for MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Coach of the Year and Rookies of the Year. So, in the first edition of Awards Ballot, let’s predict the top five finishers for each award. Offensive Player Of The Year After forcing his way out of Philadelphia to reunite with his former head coach Mike Vrabel, there are no more excuses for Brown. He has one of the best young quarterbacks in the game throwing him the football in Drake Maye, and he should be by far the most targeted player in New England’s offense. A big year statistically should be expected from the talented, big-bodied receiver. But a question remains whether the Patriots have improved up front enough on the offensive line to protect Maye so he can get the ball downfield to Brown. It’s concerning that the 49ers are already limiting McCaffrey’s practice time due to “tightness”, and the season hasn’t even started. That speaks to the Stanford product’s lengthy injury history and how important he is for head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense. However, if McCaffrey can stay out of the training room, he’s one of the most versatile playmakers in the league. Add in playmakers like Brock Purdy, George Kittle and Mike Evans, and it’s hard for defenses to consistently contain McCaffrey. Last year’s Offensive Player of the Year had a season to remember in 2025, posting career numbers in leading a Seattle offense directed by departed offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who pushed all the right buttons for the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl. However, Kubiak’s in Las Vegas and Seattle has a new offensive coordinator in Brian Fleury, so we don’t know how the offense will look this year. Having Sam Darnold back provides some continuity, and Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Kupp offer other pass-catching options to help take some of the attention away from the Ohio State product. Nacua has attempted to eliminate the off-the-field distractions and heighten his focus on the field. It’s still yet to be determined if the league will levy any discipline for Nacua’s off-the-field transgressions. But Nacua should be properly motivated to put up numbers, with the Rams choosing to wait to open their wallet and give him a new contract that rivals the over $40 million annually received by Smith-Njigba. If Nacua can replicate what he did on the field last season, he’ll almost certainly get such a deal. He put up jaw-dropping statistics across the board, finishing second in receiving yards (1,715) and tied for sixth in receiving touchdowns (10) last season. If he stays healthy, Nacua should put up similar numbers this season. One of the most complete backs in the league, the speedy Gibbs should benefit from the diverse running game scheme new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing brings with him from Arizona. Gibbs finished with 1,223 rushing yards last season, but could push for 2,000 yards in Petzing’s scheme. Since being selected No. 12 in the 2023 draft, Gibbs is third in the NFL in scrimmage yards at 5,029. On an offense filled with dynamic playmakers led by an elite distributor of the football in Jared Goff, Gibbs is the most important chess piece. Defensive Player Of The Year The Ravens grabbed Hendrickson in free agency after rescinding the trade for Maxx Crosby. And new head coach Jesse Minter knows how to get the most out of talented edge rushers like Hendrickson from his time with the Chargers, where Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu thrived. Baltimore should be ahead in a lot of games as well, providing Hendrickson with a bounty of pass-rush opportunities. The Illinois product recently signed a new deal, making him the highest-paid defensive back in the league. Witherspoon could have been the MVP of the Super Bowl with his performance in that big game and will use that as a springboard into the regular season in a rematch with the Patriots. There’s an argument to be made that Leonard Williams is Seattle’s most impactful player defensively, but Witherspoon can make splash plays all over the field. The Texans made Anderson the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league this offseason, paying him $50 million annually. Selected third overall by Houston in the 2023 draft. Anderson won the Rookie Defensive Player of the Year that season and is one of the leaders on one of the most talented defensive groups in the NFL. A Defensive Player of the Year finalist last season, Anderson has 30 career sacks in three seasons and finished second in the league in pressures last year (87). It might be time for Anderson to finally win his first Defensive Player of the Year. The top cover corner in the league, Surtain took home Defensive Player of the Year honors two years ago and is the best defensive player returning for one of the top defenses in the league. Surtain does a great job of taking away half the field. Surtain held quarterbacks to a 15.8% completion percentage on downfield throws last season, which was the lowest mark of any defender in the league, per Next Gen Stats. Surtain gave up just three receptions for 53 yards in those situations, with six pass breakups. The Rams have had Garrett in bubble wrap heading into the team’s season opener against the San Francisco 49ers, as he has barely practiced during training camp due to knee swelling. But make no mistake, when Garrett takes the field as the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and leader of a defense that includes the return of game wrecker Aaron Donald, expect his presence to be felt. That means there’s a good chance Garrett could repeat as defensive MVP. Coach Of The Year O’Connell’s QB whisperer vibes took a big hit with first-round selection J.J. McCarthy last year and falling down the depth chart. But after Sam Darnold excelled and moved on to win a Super Bowl in Seattle, O’Connell can redeem himself with Kyler Murray. And with an aggressive defense led by Brian Flores, Murray should have his best defensive group helping him on the other side of the football since he’s been in the pros. So, the ingredients are in place for O’Connell to be a strong Coach of the Year candidate. NFL observers are expecting a quick turnaround in the Big Apple, but things could take longer than expected as Harbaugh begins to mold the roster into his tough, hard-nosed image. But the most important thing is the Giants appear to have got the quarterback right in Jaxson Dart. He’ll need playmaking receiver Malik Nabers to stay healthy. If Nabers remains healthy, Harbaugh could easily find himself in Coach of the Year contention. With Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the Cowboys should have no problems scoring points on offense. But the hope for Schottenheimer is that the addition of new defensive coordinator Christian Parker will help jump-start the worst defense in the league last year. Watching the Cowboys at training camp, Parker added a much-needed new energy to the defensive side of the football, and that should translate to more wins for a Dallas squad that was more competitive than expected under Schottenheimer in his first season as a head coach last season. Caleb Williams and Johnson are expected to take another step in development in their second year together. Johnson expects Williams to improve his accuracy as a passer, and we’ll see if Rome Odunze can develop into a No. 1 receiver. But how well things go for the Bears will depend on how much of an improvement the defense makes under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. If that goes to plan, then Johnson should be a Coach of the Year candidate again. Ryan’s won double-digit games and made the playoffs in all three years as head coach of the Texans, yet Ryans’ name doesn’t regularly come up in these Coach of the Year conversations. He’s developed one of the most ferocious defenses in the league, and if quarterback C.J. Stroud can keep from throwing the ball to the other team, the Texans have a chance to make some noise in the playoffs if they get there again. Offensive Rookie of the Year I believe Mendoza will play sooner rather than later with Kirk Cousins getting the starting nod to begin the season. It will be hard to keep Mendoza on the sidelines when the Raiders predictably struggle. And if given a chance to play on a regular basis, Mendoza might struggle early, but like Tyler Shough last season for the Saints, his talent will ultimately shine through. The Texas A&M product is a big play waiting to happen and should get more opportunities to produce on special teams. Concepcion is special with the ball in his hands, with his ability to make something happen after the catch and as a runner. It doesn’t matter if it’s Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders running the offense for Cleveland; look for Concepcion to lead all rookies in explosive plays. With Ricky Pearsall out for the season, Stribling gets an opportunity to seize a role as a significant contributor in Shanahan’s offense. I had a chance to watch Stribling up close during a joint practice with the Los Angeles Chargers, and his movement skills, sticky hands and running ability after the catch were impressive. He should quickly develop a good rapport with Purdy, turning into another reliable receiver for the 49ers. There’s certainly a case to be made for Love being the choice as the top offensive rookie this season. He looked elusive in the only preseason action we saw of him. But that’s also my reason for concern, as Love suffered a high ankle sprain that hasn’t allowed him to practice since. Love’s availability is in question heading into the season opener against the Bolts. Along with that, Love is part of a crowded running back room that includes veterans Tyler Allgeir and James Conner, which could limit his opportunities. Price is on the other end of the spectrum from Love, his former teammate at Notre Dame. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker signed with the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency and Zach Charbonnet is still working his way back from season-ending knee surgery. So, Price will start the season as the workhorse back. And with new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury coming from San Diego, where they leaned heavily on Christian McCaffrey, expect Price to get a heavy, consistent workload as long as he stays healthy, with George Holani and Emanuel Wilson serving as change-of-pace backs. The scenario sets up nicely for Price to win this award. Defensive Rookie Of The Year The Canadian-born pass rusher has flashed speed off the edge and shown a consistent ability to get after the quarterback. While his reps may be limited with Mack and Tuipulotu as the starters, Mesidor should still get enough pass rush snaps to make an impact. I watched Downs at training camp practice and a joint practice with the Rams, and he’s an easy mover who appears to have quickly picked up new defensive coordinator Christian Parker’s Vic Fangio-based scheme. Versatility is Downs’ calling card, with an ability to play sticky coverage, tackle in space and serve as an effective blitzer. That means the expectation is the Ohio State product will fill up the stat sheet on game day. Reviews have been mixed for Styles on how he has performed during training camp and in preseason games. Still, he’s got the physical tools, smarts and family lineage to grow into a productive, every-down linebacker for the Commanders. Specifically, with his explosive athleticism, head coach Dan Quinn expects Styles to develop into an effective pass rusher as his game evolves. One of the most polished pass rushers in this year’s draft, the expectation is that Bailey will immediately produce for a much-maligned New York defense that finished No. 31 in the league with 26 sacks and without an interception last season. Just like Bailey, the expectation is for Bain to impact Tampa Bay’s defense early because he’s a polished pass rusher. I believe Bain has a chance to reach double-digit sacks playing for a team that should compete for an NFC South title with Baker Mayfield leading them. Ten or more sacks would cement Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. Most Valuable Player With a new head coach in Jesse Minter and a new offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle, Jackson is out to prove that he’s fully healthy and last year was an aberration. But can Jackson, who turns 30 in January, return to the dynamic, dangerous runner of his younger years? And if he can’t consistently put the fear in defenses with his legs, can Jackson be efficient and create enough explosive plays from the pocket to consistently move the chains? Along with Jackson, the Ravens need running back Derrick Henry to return to the fountain of youth. Offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel and Herbert are still in the honeymoon stage of their new relationship, heaping praise on each other as they build a new, dynamic offense under the watchful eyes of head coach Jim Harbaugh. And Harbaugh has been championing the big brains of both, saying the two are the smartest men he’s ever been around in football. While we like the bromance at The Bolt, at some point during the season, when the Chargers inevitably face another rash of injuries along the offensive line, McDaniel knows things will get hard. And unlike previous seasons, the Chargers appear to have an adept offensive mind in place to deal with those tough times, still putting Herbert in a place to succeed that keeps him upright. Herbert could be in line to have his best season as a pro. I expect Stafford to have a good year, with his playmakers returning from last season. But I think it will be hard to replicate the production he had last year, particularly with one of the tougher schedules in the NFL that includes starting the season in Australia against the 49ers. Specifically, the Rams had good injury health with the offensive line last year, and it will be interesting to see if that continues this season. Allen missed a prime opportunity to win a Super Bowl last season, with Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Jackson all out of the playoffs. His four-interception performance in a road loss to the Denver Broncos will go down as one of his more disappointing playoff performances of his NFL career. But with offensive coordinator Joe Brady taking over as Buffalo’s head coach, Allen has a chance to redeem himself. The problem? Burrow, Mahomes and Jackson are all healthy. While he’s targeted a Week 1 return the entire time, it’s still astonishing that Mahomes appears to be moving well only nine months after suffering a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee that required surgery. However, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid still must rely on top free-agent addition Kenneth Walker III and the return of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy to create enough balance on offense to protect Mahomes in his return to play. Along with that, Mahomes needs Kansas City’s defense to get back to being an elite group. It will be interesting to see defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo find replacements in the secondary for departed, top-tier defensive backs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. And does aging defensive tackle Chris Jones still have something left in the tank? Still considered by most NFL observers as the best player in the league, Mahomes has not won the MVP Award since 2022 and is two behind Aaron Rodgers (four). I like him (and the Chiefs) to rebound from a poor performance last season to win his third MVP award.