What’s Next For Aaron Judge, The Yankees And The AL MVP Race

NEW YORK – Aaron Judge’s pursuit of another historic season, and the Yankees’ hopes of dominating the American League, took a major hit late Thursday night when the superstar slugger was diagnosed with a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side – an injury expected to sideline him for two to three months. Few teams are built to withstand the loss of a three-time MVP for half a season. Fewer, still, can absorb the absence of a player who touches nearly every aspect of the game and clubhouse the way Judge does. The Yankee captain’s stress fracture, though not the worst-case scenario, comes at a pivotal point in the season for New York, which entered the weekend with the most wins (37) and the best offense (114 wRC+) in the AL. What’s next for the Yankees without their most feared hitter? What’s next for Judge’s recovery? How does his injury impact the rest of the league? Let’s dive in. What’s Next For Judge The 34-year-old right fielder will be re-imaged in approximately four to six weeks to determine the level of healing on his rib. Until then, he’ll rest and engage in limited activity. Learning the injury is a stress fracture – something Judge has actually dealt with earlier in his career – was a bit of good news for the Yankees after all the alarming testing and imaging he underwent this week. Judge isn’t sure when the injury occurred, according to Yankees skipper Aaron Boone, but he’d felt it for a couple of weeks and flagged it with the team sometime after the Yankees’ series finale against the Athletics last Sunday. Then, over the span of four days, multiple specialists across different states looked at his MRI, CT scan and X-rays. On Thursday, Dr. Gregory Pearl, a Dallas, Texas-based vascular surgeon who specializes in thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS), examined Judge’s images. In some cases, TOS can be career-ending; Judge’s diagnosis of a stress fracture is comparatively a positive. In Sept. 2019, Judge sustained a stress fracture of his first right rib and a partially collapsed lung while attempting a diving catch in a game. He played through the injury into the 2019 postseason, but he would have been on the injured list until June 2020 had the pandemic-shortened season started on time. Judge hasn’t spoken to reporters since last weekend, during New York’s trip to West Sacramento, so it’s unclear if his current stress fracture feels more or less manageable than the last time he dealt with it. Judge’s performance started to dip around the middle of May. He batted .267 with a 1.043 OPS and 16 home runs through his first 41 games of the season. Since May 11, Judge has batted .206 with a .613 OPS and one home run in his last 18 games before landing on the IL. The last time Judge played fewer than 150 games was in 2023, when he missed two months with a fractured toe after crashing into the Dodger Stadium wall on a running catch. In a best-case scenario, Judge and the Yankees will receive the green light sometime in July for the slugger to resume baseball activities. It seems likely that the team will have to navigate the season without Judge at least until August, if not longer. What’s Next For The Yankees For the past two years, the Yankees survived injuries, slumps and roster questions because Aaron Judge remained Aaron Judge. Now — in what will be the biggest test of their season — they’ll have to find out who they are without him. We got a glimpse of what their life will look like this week, as the Yankees dropped two out of three games to the Guardians, their only win coming in a tight, 2-1 victory in the series finale on Thursday. Without Judge, the Yankees lineup combined to bat just .193 in three games against Cleveland. Top outfield prospect Spencer Jones is being called up by the Yankees on Friday, according to a person familiar with their plans. Jones was promoted to the big leagues in May after outfielder Jasson Dominguez went down with injury, but he struggled at the plate, hitting .167 (4-for-24) with 12 strikeouts in 10 games, before the Yankees sent him back down to Triple-A. It would help, of course, if Jones has improved in his return to the majors, but at least some reinforcements are on the way. Slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who has been out since April 24 with a right calf strain, is making strides in his recovery. New York’s designated hitter has started to take reps in live batting practice while continuing to ramp up his running program. The Yankees expect Stanton to bypass a rehab assignment, but there’s no date for his return just yet. Perhaps Judge’s injury and absence will change his timeline. Dominguez, who has been out since May 7 after crashing into the Yankee Stadium wall and sustaining a left AC joint sprain, is scheduled to play in minor-league rehab games this weekend. It’s possible he could join the team during its series in Toronto next weekend, if not during New York’s next homestand on June 16. Beyond the immediate loss of Judge’s bat, his absence raises questions about the Yankees’ ability to maintain their position atop the AL. While New York has received significant contributions from breakout player Ben Rice, who has crushed 17 home runs and boasts a 1.030 OPS that’s ranked second-best in the major leagues, no player on the roster can replicate Judge’s combination of power, on-base ability and presence in the heart of the lineup. It helps the Yankees that the AL features a weak and largely mediocre field this year. But it will still take everyone, and then some, for the Yankees to stay afloat until he returns. What’s Next For The AL MVP Race Suddenly, the AL MVP race is wide open after Judge has all but closed the door on the possibility of a three-peat this year. Judge wasn’t having the kind of overwhelming and commanding season he had in 2024-25 before he hit the IL, and if he returns without any setbacks, he’s lucky to land in the neighborhood of 90–110 games played for the season, depending on his recovery. That doesn’t automatically disqualify him from the race, but it would require an absurdly dominant final two months and an extraordinary comeback to overcome the missed time. Even though Judge is known to separate himself from mere mortals, it would be surprising if the Yankees pushed him in the stretch run. The team is more likely to be cautious with the face of its franchise and take its time with his recovery. Now, the biggest beneficiaries of Judge’s injury and the favorites to win the AL MVP award include Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez, Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz, and even his own Yankees teammate, the slugging Ben Rice. The Yankees first baseman has struggled to get pitches to hit in Judge’s absence, as Rice is used to hitting in front of Judge in the lineup, but he remains a dark-horse candidate if he can sustain his production for four months. If Witt can keep up his strong start to the season, this might finally be his year to win the MVP. The shortstop challenged Judge for the award in 2024, when Witt finished second in AL MVP voting after hitting .332 and winning the batting title. This year, Witt leads the majors with a 3.8 fWAR through 63 games. He’s hitting .281 with a .818 OPS, and he’s likely to have a huge advantage in games played compared to other MVP favorites. The combination of Witt’s offense, defense at a premium position and durability makes him the newest frontrunner for the award.