Sound Smart: 5 Observations on the NFL Offseason Entering the Owners Meetings

PHOENIX — With the 2026 Annual NFL League Meeting officially in session, information is flying fast. We’ll hear from NFC coaches on Monday and AFC coaches on Tuesday. So let’s delve into what’s been going on around the league lately. This is “Sound Smart,” where I try to spin forward, dive deeper and think outside the box. If I do my job, you’ll have a better understanding of what’s happening this NFL offseason. 1. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY What to make of the Ty Simpson debate It’s unusual when scouts and coaches reach out to me to ask what I think about a topic. Because of course, 99.99% of the time, it’s the other way around. That’s how upside-down things are when it comes to Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. If you somehow missed it, it went like this. Last week, ESPN’s Dan Orlovski said Ty Simpson is the QB1 in the 2026 NFL Draft. Yes, over Fernando Mendoza, the presumed No. 1 overall pick. And what we found out — in the days that followed — is that Orlovsky is more or less the only person who feels that way. The consensus remains: Mendoza over Simpson. The conversation was loud enough to reach the Simpson family, including Ty’s father, Jason, who is the head coach at the University of Tennessee at Martin. “The quarterback is what fans are interested in, so that’s why Ty’s in that news cycle every day,” Jason Simpson told me. “If he wasn’t my son, I’d be paying attention to his film because it’s interesting. So we’re pretty thick-skinned about it. We get it. We understand that’s what fills the stadium. Simpson added: “We feel pretty good about the situation that he’s in right now with the teams that we’re having conversations with, and so I’m excited for him.” One silver lining of the controversy is that people began to take Simpson more seriously as a first-round prospect. His dad suggested to me that Ty wouldn’t have declared for the draft if he didn’t have a strong sense that he had solid Round 1 potential. Since the beginning of this process, the Alabama QB has been on the radar of NFL teams for a spot in the top 32. Simpson belongs in that conversation, in large part because of what he did in the first eight games of the season. But, even with eight great games, his 31 appearances and single season as a starter make for an excruciatingly limited evaluation. Even if he were a more complete prospect than Mendoza (and he’s not), there are far too many risks associated with Simpson’s small body of work. This conversation might actually say less about Simpson and more about Mendoza, who — in other draft classes — would not be regarded as the unquestioned top QB prospect. There are plenty of legitimate questions about Mendoza’s pro prospects. But even if we would like there to be a prospect who could challenge Mendoza — like Oregon’s Dante Moore might have done, if he had not returned to school — we can’t manufacture one. Mendoza faces fewer uncertainties than Simpson. It’s not a glittery conclusion, but it’s an important one to acknowledge. 2. HE SAID WHAT?! Bills coach Joe Brady said Josh Allen “couldn’t walk” at the end of last season due to a foot injury On the field, Josh Allen was as dominant as ever in 2025, with the Bills once again riding their star QB. Off the field and behind the scenes, Allen’s foot injury was more severe than Buffalo let on. He had a broken bone in his right foot that required offseason surgery. “The thing about Josh Allen, he got surgery after the season, but he’s playing as if you think there’s nothing wrong with him. The guy could barely walk, and then he’s playing games and it’s not impacting [his play],” Joe Brady told NFL Network. “He’s built different. And let’s hope it continues that way, but he’ll be good to go in the offseason.” It’s a necessary piece of context for a QB who appeared to be slogging through with not just an underwhelming supporting cast but also a handful of physical maladies. It sounds like the injuries are healing. And it appears the Bills have begun to address the supporting cast, with Buffalo trading for former Chicago Bears receiver DJ Moore this offseason to be the team’s WR1. The hope is that — under new head coach Brady — Allen won’t have to overcome quite so much adversity. And that, in turn, could finally get the Bills back into the Super Bowl. 3. EVERYONE’S AFRAID TO SAY The Jaxon Smith-Njigba contract has a whole lot to do with Sam Darnold Smith-Njigba got paid in a way we’ve never seen before, with the receiver resetting the market at $42.15 million per year — a four-year, $168.6 million contract. It’s well-deserved, with the Seahawks rewarding their guy, who has exceeded expectations by ascending not just into the WR1 role in Seattle’s offense but, arguably, into the NFL’s WR1 spot. He led the league with 1,793 receiving yards and accounted for 46% of his team’s passing yards, the highest percentage by a pass-catcher last season (by a significant margin). There are a lot of reasons why the Seahawks can and should feel good about rewarding their receiver, including the simple fact that he is — by all accounts — a terrific person on top of being a terrific player. But the less obvious reason is that quarterback Sam Darnold makes just $33.5 million per year. And much like teams work to maximize a rookie QB’s contract, the Seahawks are enjoying the benefits of Darnold occupying the NFL’s middle class when it comes to cap percentage for a QB. At no point during Darnold’s three-year contract will Smith-Njigba take on a bigger cap number (because the Seahawks have backloaded the receiver’s extension). So the Seahawks aren’t exactly signaling Smith-Njigba is more valuable than their QB. But also, they’re not not saying it. Again, Darnold is making $33.5 million per year on his three-year, $100 million deal. It’s not a mystery: Darnold exceeds his station because of Smith-Njigba’s support. The QB had the best season of his life in 2025, leading the Seahawks to the Super Bowl title. But while Darnold continues to demonstrate a level of progress that few thought he’d achieve, it has to be nerve-racking for Seattle to expect consistency. One way to keep working toward consistency is to keep Smith-Njigba around — and to keep him happy. Darnold’s success is as reliant upon Smith-Njigba as much as any QB relied upon a receiver this year. So you can argue that Smith-Njigba is or isn’t the best receiver in the NFL. You can’t argue that he wasn’t the most important piece on offense. 4. PEELING BACK THE CURTAIN The Travis Kelce contract is absolutely not what it seems At the first news of Kelce’s contract, it frankly made no sense: three years and $54.7 million, according to multiple reports, for the Chiefs’ 36-year-old tight end. Not only did it seem like an enormous commitment to a guy on the verge of retirement, but it seemed like an absurd allocation of resources for a team that frankly has a lot of needs across the board, especially on offense. So it should come as a relief to Chiefs fans that those numbers are basically nonsense. The reality is that Kelce signed a one-year deal worth $12 million. He can earn another $3 million based on playing time, a playoff berth and a Super Bowl victory. So while the initial number placed Kelce in the top three among the highest-paid tight ends in average annual value, the actual number ranks him at 11th, between Denver’s Evan Engram and Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth — which is a reasonable deal for Kelce and for the Chiefs. Kelce should do enough to earn his paycheck in 2026. Even if he doesn’t, I don’t think ownership will be upset to keep him in a Chiefs jersey for a 14th season, in part because of how many of those jerseys will sell over the next year. 5. DRAFT GEMS KC Concepcion thinks he’s underrated … because he absolutely is There’s been plenty of conversation about Jordyn Tyson, Carnell Tate and even Makai Lemon as the top receiver in this year’s draft. There’s been plenty of conversation about the next tier that includes Denzel Boston and Omar Cooper Jr. But perhaps we’ve lost KC Concepcion in the fray. The Texas A&M receiver finished his 2025 season with 61 catches for 919 yards and nine touchdowns. He demonstrated a consistent ability to win on just about every route — and against both man and zone coverages. In essence, he earned the right to be in the Round 1 conversation. It feels like people are only just starting to pay attention to his outstanding body of work. “I’ve always been underestimated all my life,” Concepcion told me at the Adidas Pro Day in Portland, Oregon, in mid-March. “It’s really nothing I’m not used to, so I have proven myself ever since I got to college. And I mean, I’m happy to do it at the next level.” Concepcion has a speech impediment and has spoken openly about wanting to be a role model for “people who might be scared to speak up [and] who may be afraid and not confident in yourself.” I wondered if he felt people underestimate him because of his speech impediment. “I don’t really think that plays a role,” Concepcion told me. “I think a lot of people forget I’m a really damn good football player, and that’s what every team wants. I was born with it. I can’t really do anything about it. That shouldn’t take away from anything on the field.” There are so many teams that make sense for Concepcion in Round 1, from the Los Angeles Chargers (with new OC Mike McDaniel utilizing the WR’s agility and speed) to the New England Patriots (with QB Drake Maye attacking the intermediate and deep areas with Concepcion) or even the Los Angeles Rams (with Concepcion complementing WR1 Puka Nacua).