Men’s College Basketball Top 10, Bubble Team NET Rankings: Duke Passes Arizona

The top 25 rankings are important for understanding just who is killing it in college basketball, but we can go deeper — all the way to the bubble and beyond. The NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, is a rankings system used in Division I basketball to help figure out which teams are going to participate in March Madness. As the NCAA puts it, NET “takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses,” the latter of which is determined by placing every Division I matchup into different quadrants, ranked 1 through 4, with 1 being the strongest teams and 4 the weakest — Quads aren’t just determined by record, but also whether a game was played at home, on the road or at a neutral site. Using NET, we can get a sense of which teams are the best at a given moment, as well as which ones are on the bubble for selection in March. While updated daily by the NCAA, we’ll track changes weekly. With that, here are the top 10 men’s college basketball teams through Feb. 2, according to NET. The Top 10 10. Nebraska (previous: 5) Nebraska moved all the way up to 5th in NET a week ago, but consecutive losses to Michigan and Illinois brought them to the very back of the top 10. Now, the Huskers’ issue in both of those games came down to fouling too often and at the right time: some improved defensive play that doesn’t result in so many trips to the line could heal all that ailed them in those contests, and learning that before the conference tournament kicks off isn’t the worst thing in the world. 9. Houston (previous: 10) Houston had slipped back to 10 last week thanks to being upset by Texas Tech, but the Cougars handled TCU and Cincinnati in a pair of games since, giving them a bump back in the right direction. This week presents a bit more of a challenge, with previously ranked UCF coming up on Wednesday followed by No. 16 BYU on Saturday. 8. Purdue (previous: 10) Purdue managed to rebound a bit from its three-game slide with a 30-point win over Maryland on Sunday. Still, losses to UCLA, Illinois and Indiana do not inspire a ton of confidence — well, the defeats against UCLA and Indiana, anyway, Illinois is excellent — but Purdue has plenty of talent and just needs to figure out how to utilize it going forward, as the Boilermakers did against the Terps. 7. UConn (previous: 8) Hey, the Huskies finally moved out of 8th in NET, where they have sat for weeks on end. Having Purdue, Houston and Nebraska all clear out of the top five over the last few weeks did a lot to help with that, but so did UConn finally dominating a fellow Big East team again, as it did against Creighton on Saturday in an 85-58 W. 6. Illinois (previous: 6) Illinois is 7-3 in Quad 1 games, and that second number is all that’s keeping them from sitting even higher in NET — every team ahead of the Fighting Illini has one or zero Quad 1 defeats. Still, Illinois looks significantly more terrifying now than it did earlier in the season, and it even managed to get revenge on Nebraska for a December loss. 5. Gonzaga (previous: 4) Two minor issues for Gonzaga had it sliding back a spot this week, as the Bulldogs played just one game, and also won by a slimmer margin than NET looks for, 73-65. Saint Mary’s (CA) has a good basketball team and all — NET has them ranked 32nd — but Gonzaga is supposed to be one of the very best around, so eight points gets a little slap on the wrist, especially given how the next team did in the same time period. With just four Quad 1 matchups behind it, Gonzaga doesn’t have much leeway with NET. 4. Iowa State (previous: 7) Iowa State defeated Colorado, 97-67, and then Kansas State 95-61. That’s a pair of top-90 teams, demolished in succession. Now, top-90 isn’t the same as top-32 like Gonzaga dealt with, but it was also two games that improved the Cyclones’ overall schedule difficulty, which was at one time trailing well behind Gonzaga’s but has now surpassed it as the tougher of the two. 3. Michigan (previous: 3) Michigan defeated Nebraska and Michigan State last week, which is the kind of thing that lets you keep your seat at the table, but they were also both expected wins and by expected amounts. There is a reason Nebraska only fell so far, and Michigan State might not be on this week’s list, but that’s because the Spartans dropped from 9th to 11th. 2. Arizona (previous: 1) Arizona has been surpassed as the top team in NET, just one week after swiping the spot from Michigan. The Wildcats might be undefeated, but they beat BYU by just a few points, 86-83, then let Arizona State hang around a little too close, 87-74. Neither was a bad dub, but they were weaker than those of the competition. 1. Duke (previous: 2) Duke is 1st in NET for the first time this season, owing to already being 2nd and then crushing ranked Louisville by 31 points before downing Virginia Tech, 72-58. Duke has faced the 17th-toughest schedule in men’s college basketball and the fourth-toughest in the top 10; Arizona ranks 34th and 6th, respectively, and trails Duke by both a road game and a Quad 2 win in addition to the scheduling difference. The lead is slim, is the thing, but it’s there even with Arizona not suffering a loss yet. Risers and Fallers In the span of a week, some teams can see their spot in the rankings dramatically shift. Here are the five teams that rose the most in men’s college basketball in the last week… 5. Saint Joseph’s, 182 to 156: Saint Joseph’s grabbed wins over Loyola Chicago and La Salle, and while they were wins that were supposed to happen given the difference in NET between these teams, that the Hawks won by a combined 30 points helped them get a serious bump. 4. App State, 209 to 182: A win over Southern Miss was a positive even if it wasn’t by many points, but what made the week for the Mountaineers was defeating Troy by 22 points — the Trojans entered the week just outside the top-100, and find themselves further out of that range now. 3. Central Michigan, 333 to 299: What a week for the Chippewas! Central Michigan was one of the 30 or so worst teams in all of D-I by NET, but it dropped 100 points on Eastern Michigan while limiting it to 65, then turned around and shocked Bowling Green with a 62-59 dub, an upset significant enough that it’s part of why you will read about the Falcons in the next section. 2. Fordham, 227 to 190: Fordham snapped a 3-game losing streak by winning against La Salle, then followed that up with another W against George Washington, which was looking like a bubble team until right when that happened. 1. Sacramento State, 284 to 244: The Hornets rattled off three wins in the past week, against Montana State (137th in NET at the start of the week), Montana (156th) and Weber State (194th). Three upsets in a row? Take a bow, Sacramento State. …and the five that fell the furthest. T5. Bowling Green, 108 to 136: It wasn’t just the loss to Central Michigan that did Bowling Green in last week, but that the defeat was preceded by another upset, an 89-78 loss to Buffalo. That wasn’t nearly as bad of an upset, sure, but it’s still two losses the Falcons weren’t supposed to have. T5. Arkansas State, 146 to 174: Arkansas State lost to Old Dominion, 75-71, then to Marshall, 70-61. While the Marshall loss was between two evenly matched teams by NET’s accounting, Dominion was barely a top-250 team. 3. Tarleton State, 187 to 217: A postponement against Abilene Christian followed by losses to Utah Valley and Utah Tech did not do Tarleton any favors this week. And neither did dropping that game to Utah Valley, 83-55. That’s a top-100 team, sure, but the Texans got rocked. 2. Troy, 103 to 137: Troy has suffered a couple of tough-luck overtime losses this season, but this week the Trojans were taken care of in regulation. James Madison topped them, 73-64 — a terrible loss, as the Dukes came into the week ranked 233rd in NET — and then App State bested them by 22. 1. New Mexico State, 149 to 188: No one had it worse than the Aggies, however. Despite being a top-150 team, albeit barely, New Mexico State lost to Delaware — ranked 301st at the start of the week — and then Kennesaw State. The second loss was less of a problem, in that the two were supposed to be evenly matched, but the Owls ended up winning by 23 points. On the Bubble Of the 68 March Madness teams in the tournament, 31 of them are conference champions who receive automatic entry into the tournament. The other 37 spots are at-large bids. With that in mind, we will look at the teams ranked between 64-to-73 in NET each week, as those are the ones who are the most on the bubble for the tourney. 73. Wake Forest (previous: 65): Wake Forest has been struggling since its last win against Florida State on Jan. 17. The Demon Deacons lost to SMU and Duke, then in the past week dropped an overtime game to Pittsburgh before NC State handled them with ease, 96-78. When Wake Forest won against FSU, by the way, it put them 58th in NET. 72. Syracuse (previous: 79): A 20-point loss to NC State wasn’t great, but that’s also a team that could arguably be ranked. The Orange followed that defeat up with an 86-72 W over Notre Dame and a 10-point loss to No. 14 UNC, allowing them to move into the bubble. 71. Illinois State (previous: 77): Just the one game this week for Illinois State, but the Redbirds made it count with a dub over Murray State, which booted the Racers clear out of bubble territory. 70. Northwestern (previous: 69): A 94-73 win over Penn State was a pro, a 76-62 loss to Washington a con. Northwestern ended up right back around where it was a week ago. 69. Missouri (previous: 68): Similarly but in the opposite order, Missouri lost to Alabama before recovering against Mississippi State, and that had the Tigers treading water. 68. Oklahoma State (previous: 73): A nifty boost for the Cowboys, who toppled Utah 81-69 in their lone game of the week. Oklahoma State will play No. 16 BYU on Wednesday, however, then follow that up against undefeated No. 1 Arizona. 67. Grand Canyon (previous: 74): From just outside of the bubble a week ago to right in the middle of it, Grand Canyon got here by pushing Nevada to overtime and then defeating Boise State, 86-69. 66. West Virginia (previous: 67): The Mountaineers mostly maintained their place, thanks to pairing a W over Kansas State with an L against Baylor. 65. George Mason (previous: 70): George Mason played twice this past week, and the Patriots won both games, defeating Davidson and then St. Bonaventure. While neither is going to be attracting an at-large bid to March, that’s still two top-150ish teams. 64. Butler (previous: 50): The Bulldogs followed a strong win over Marquette with losses to St. John’s and then Georgetown, which is now a top-100 team in no small part because of its 13-point win over Butler.